SUMMER 2021 starting with GREAT HOT? The SCREENINGS for JUNE and JULY are WORRY. Details »

Weather: SUMMER 2021 starting with VERY HOT? The SCREENINGS for JUNE and JULY are WORRY. The details

Summer 2021: first screenings for the start of the seasonSummer on the calendar is still far away, but the first projections on what could be its weather-climatic configuration it’s already starting to worry the experts.
Without beating around the bush: the start of next season promises to be very hot right from the start, at least judging by the first maps of the seasonal models for June and July.
We take stock of the situation by trying to analyze all the details.

As usual, in order to be able to trace a long-term trend we must rely on the so-called seasonal maps: an attempt to predict, well in advance, the meteorological trend in broad lines over vast areal scales. In Europe, the leader of the sector is the European Center for the Medium-term Meteorological Forecast, ECMWF, based in England, in Reading (UK).

Well, for the two months June-July the first trends confirm anomaly positive thermals I was +2°C, especially in the Center-North, compared to the reference climatic average (last 20 years). But what does this mean? At first glance, only 2 degrees of difference might seem small however, from a climatological point of view, it is a rather high value, certainly a alarm bell. In practice this could result in 10/15 days longer than usual with maximum temperatures up to around 32 ° C over much of Italy: in short, the classic African flares more and more frequent in recent years. A threshold that, as we know, combined with the amount of humidity in the air, makes the difference between well-being and the first signs of discomfort.

With these premises, then pay attention to extreme phenomena: the chronicles of recent years have accustomed us to a real extremization of the climate, now also in our latitudes. Intense hailstorms and strong thunderstorms, the so-called storms, could in fact alternate with hot African raids.
To date, it is good to clarify it, we cannot have the mathematical certainty that all this happens, but all clues lead us to the same side, that is towards quite extreme scenarios.
While there is a certain margin of uncertainty, the above it’s all true; these are not far-fetched predictions, but one of the main ones scenarios proposed by the very authoritative European Center.

Above average temperatures in June and July up to + 2 ° C (official source: ecmwf)


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