Buenos Aires There is currently a beautiful saying in Latin America that perfectly describes the situation in Argentina. It says that when you return to this country after 30 days, everything has changed, but when you return after 30 years, nothing has changed. Only two weeks ago, it looked like Argentina was soon out of the woods.
The recession seemed to give way to a slight recovery. At the end of June, Argentina, as a member of Mercosur with the EU, signed the agreement on becoming the largest free trade area in the world. President Mauricio Macri climbed out of his popularity hole. Everyone thought it likely he could be re-elected in October.
Nobody – except the hard core of the fans – wants to go back to foreclosure, dirigism and corruption of a Cristina Kirchner, so the tenor among investors and political experts. But it turned out differently: The Peronists – followers of a multi-layered political movement – outclassed Macri in the primaries.
Cristina Kirchner – two-time president in front of Macri – was there as vice-president along with her cabinet boss. Now the peso has crashed, inflation is rising and the recession is intensifying. Suddenly Argentina's risk of default is rising. Macri's chance to be re-elected in October is now close to zero. That's how it is when everything changes in Argentina within a few days – or not at all.
For the correspondent, who has already reported more than a dozen crises in Argentina, the everyday crisis has come back, which is actually normal in Argentina. It looks like an age-old film, remembering how Macri boldly proclaimed when he took office three and a half years ago that he wanted to have cleaned up with poverty by the end of his term. Furthermore, one third of Argentines are poor – or not.
What did the private channel probably only thought – one wonders now – when they tore themselves two years ago (!) For the 100-year dollar bond of Argentina. Instead of $ 2.7 billion, Argentina could easily borrow ten billion. Now the bonds are just half the value.
Now the government speculates for hours about when which loans are due and whether they can pay – or wants. The victorious Peronists in the interviews now put every word on the gold scale, and it is speculated on how they want to deal with the creditors.
There is probably no country in the world where in the evening on so many TV channels parallel hour long talk rounds run. In which economists and journalists debate with relish about the daily routine as at a public meeting table – of course theatrical, emotional and mostly talk all at the same time.
When will the IMF delegation come? What does she want? Should you let them in at all? Will the IMF allocate the final installment of the $ 57 million mega-loan totaling $ 57 million to Argentina in September, or will it pull the ripcord?
Economists are gathering from every corner
During the day, one meets the same experts and economists in the business center's narrow restaurants around the stock exchange, congress and the government seat, where they eat their steaks. Everyone used to smoke, but it has since been abolished. How come from the sinking the many economists who knew everything before – but now from the camp of the Peronists, who seem to have hidden for a few years.
Many appear in the name of “economic institutes” named after their own initials, which are one-man institutions. In fact, there are many economists in Argentina – in a city like Buenos Aires, boasting the highest density of psychotherapists per inhabitant in the world. But, if you think about it, the two professional categories – psychotherapists and economists – are not very different in Argentina.
More: Allowing a further increase in the dollar would add uncertainty, believes Hernán Lacunza. Stability is the most important public good.
Argentina (t) Mercosur (t) Mauricio Macri (t) Cristina Kirchner (t) Peso (t) Inflation (t) Default (t) Crisis (t) IMF (t) Peronists (t) Buenos Aires (t) Psychotherapists (t) Economic activity (t) Economic policy (t) Economic sciences (t) Public debt (t) Economic analysis (t) External debt (t) IMF (t) Mauricio Macri (t) Cristina Kirchner