August was a mirage. The escalation of Euribor He seemed to take a break in the eighth month of the year, but it was just that, a break. The index to which most of the country’s variable mortgages are referenced has continued its advance in September, especially on a daily basis, and, at the end of the month, it is approaching the 4.2% barrier that does not seen since the end of 2008. Experts believe that, once it is exceeded, It will not take long to reach 4.5%.
It will not be necessary to reach that moment for households with variable mortgages to notice the impact on their pockets. People who have to review their credit this month, with an average amount of 150,000 euros and a term between 25 and 30 years, will notice an increase in the payment of between 150 and 162 euros per month, or seen another way, between 1,868 and 1,940 euros per year. Almost 2,000 euros in 12 months. “This increase in price, when added to last year’s, represents a cumulative increase of more than 4,000 euros in two years,” adds Simone Colombelli, Mortgage Director of the mortgage comparator and advisor iAhorro.
Colombelli also highlights another calculation: “If the amount of the mortgage rises to 300,000 euros, with the same conditions, the increase will obviously also increase: up to 323.30 euros per month, going from a payment of 1,301, 18 euros to one of 1,624.57 euros. Per year, this mortgaged person would pay 3,880.72 euros more.”
The key to this renewed rebound is in the latest rate hike by the European Central Bank (ECB) on the 14th, when the reference level was set at 4.5%. After the meeting of the organization, its president, Christine Lagarde, hinted at the possibility of a pause in the final stretch of the year, but inflation continues to show signs of strength and the price of oil – close to 100 dollars in a barrel of Brent – raises questions about whether the ECB will finally take it to a halt. cape. Regardless of what it does, mortgage market experts give a high probability that the Euribor will end the year settled at around 4.5%. “Only if inflation continues to decelerate and investors once again discount the end of the current cycle of increases, could we see declines to levels close to 4%,” warns Joaquín Robles, of XTB.
In any of the scenarios, the mortgage will continue to be one of the main burdens on the pockets of many families that have already been decimated for some time by the erosion of purchasing power by inflation. Another piece of information that reflects this impact was offered yesterday by the Bank of Spain: households withdrew a total of 3.3 billion euros in deposits in just one month, August, partly due to the need to have savings to meet expenses. of daily life and eventualities such as summer vacations – another part also seeks to obtain higher returns on the accumulated savings and transfers it from said deposits to other investment products in the market.