The final classification of Serie A calculated by an algorithm: Juve not even in the Conference

The projection of the possible final classification of the Serie A 2022/2023 was carried out through a particular algorithm, by an American site specialized in statistics.

The championship of A league it stops for the pause linked to international commitments. An opportunity to make a first assessment after the start of the season and the many close matches already played. An opportunity also to try, taking advantage of what has happened so far, to make a more reliable prediction on the possible final ranking of the tournament. How? Through an algorithm based on results and statistics: science then enters the field to define the ranking of all the teams.

By now we have learned about the work of the Americans of fivethirtyeight.com, who also deal with football, with the aim of getting as close as possible to the final Serie A ranking, in addition to that of the greatest football tournaments in the world. The system, which is applied to different sectors with other analysis methodologies, exploits the evaluation of data and statistics. The creator Nate Silver, journalist, and statistician was initially characterized by the analysis of the elections, through an algorithm. His success in the 2008 US elections was exceptional, with very reliable forecasts. In addition to politics, and also news events, the fivethirtyeight.com blog also focused on the progress of the teams of the Italian top league, throughout the course of the season.

Nate Silver, the statistician behind fivethirtyeight.com

Nate Silver, the statistician behind fivethirtyeight.com

What is the SPI, fundamental for the projection of the final classification of the Serie A

What is the projection of the Serie A final standings based on and how does it work? Everything starts from a forecasting system, which is based on simulation that uses a series of parameters. Fundamental to this is the SPI index, or the Soccer Power Index: it is an evaluation criterion, of all the formations that is constantly updated, based on the results that are added to the studies on the previous season and on the market values ​​based on Transfertmarkt data. In this way the overall value of a team can be established.

The SPI is therefore constantly changing, taking into account precisely what happens during the year: results, performances, offensive and defensive numerical data based on the goals scored and on the prediction on the same, how the goals are scored, superiority , number of shots, scoring chances and other statistics.

The projection of the final standings of the Serie A 2022/2023 according to FiveThirtyEight

The projection of the final standings of the Serie A 2022/2023 according to FiveThirtyEight

The final classification of the Serie A 2022/2023 according to the FiveThirtyEight projection

On FiveThirtyEight, what could be the possible final classification of the Serie A 2022/2023 has been drawn up at the moment, which takes into account the results of the first seven days. At the moment the team that is considered to be the winner of the Scudetto is the Napoli, which has an SPI of 79.8 and a forecast of 78 points. Behind him, Milan, Inter and Atalanta, which therefore should be the other three teams qualified for the Champions League.

Following the two capitoline, Rome and Lazio and the surprising Udinese. Clamorously in eighth place Juventus, which therefore according to this projection of the ranking would not even qualify in the Conference League. As for the bottom of the standings, at the moment the relegated teams would be Monza, Sampdoria and Cremonese.

The final classification of the Serie A 2022/2023 according to FiveThirtyEight

  1. Napoli 78
  2. Milan 75
  3. Inter 72
  4. Atalanta 69
  5. Roma 65
  6. Lazio 64
  7. Udinese 61
  8. Juventus 55
  9. Fiorentina 55
  10. Torino 52
  11. Sassuolo 50
  12. Verona 45
  13. Bologna 41
  14. Lecce 39
  15. Empoli 38
  16. Salernitana 38
  17. Spice 38
  18. Monza 36
  19. Sampdoria 36
  20. Cremone bolt 34
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The comparison between the projection of the final ranking now and that of the beginning of the season

This is obviously a prediction, which is not infallible as confirmed, for example, by the figure from last season: at the beginning of the year Milan, then winner of the Scudetto, was given fifth. Already with respect to the projection of the Serie A ranking at the beginning of the season, things have changed considerably. Before the start of hostilities, the team given as champion of Italy was Inter ahead of Milan second and Napoli third. In the Champions area also Atalanta in front of Roma. Confirmed the difficulties of Juventus, sixth.

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