400 million Europeans against half a million people in Bremen: The vote on the future of the EU on Sunday should first more attention than the election in the Hanseatic city. It is just for the SPD Of great importance, as the citizenship election in Germany's smallest federal state emanates. Because in Bremen could this evening 70 years of SPD rule to end. If the SPD does not even win in Bremen, it must be serious about the party.
In recent polls, the SPD is already two, three percent behind the CDU fell behind and with around 24 percent now no longer strongest party. In the 2015 state election she still had a lead of more than ten percent. “The usual laws are no longer valid,” said CDU parliamentary leader Thomas Röwekamp on the situation before the state election. “Normally, the SPD in Bremen is ten percent above the federal trend, we ten percent lower”. But this time everything is different. For Röwekamp it is clear: “There is a clear change of mood.”
Second place does not mean the end for the SPD
This is not really surprising, because Bremen's economic data are still bad. No state is in debt per capita higher than the small Bremen, over 30,000 euros. Nowhere else in Germany is unemployment higher, at 9.7 percent. The risk of becoming poor is also significantly higher on the Weser River than in the federal section. For decades, Bremen has been the laggard of the federal states, including the topic of school education – all of which, of course, goes back to the permanent regents of the SPD.
In addition, the Social Democrats have a problem with their top staff. Acting Mayor Carsten Sieling, unlike his predecessors, is not particularly popular. According to ZDFPolitbarometers he answers the question “What do you think of …” on a scale of plus five to minus five with an average of 0.8. His predecessor as SPD lead candidate, Jens Böhrnsen, reached 1.9 before the last election. Böhrnsen resigned after the election in 2015, because his SPD lost just under six percentage points and landed at 32.8 percent – which was a historically bad result in Bremen at the time.
To the weakness of the SPD also contributes that mayor Sieling this time has an interesting challenger: Carsten Meyer -Heder is not one of these typical CDU politicians who have had no chance in Bremen for decades. When asked who the Bremer would rather have as mayors, the IT entrepreneur and political newcomer ends up with 29 percent approval yet clearly behind incumbent Sieling (42 percent).
It will not fail on the left
Symbolically, it would be a hard blow if SPD fell behind the CDU in second place. Your reign must not be over yet. Surely only one thing seems due to the polls so far: It will probably not be enough to continue the coalition of the SPD and the Greens, which has existed for twelve years. Both are together in the last surveys at well below 45 percent, so they no longer have a majority.
The SPD could still continue to put the mayor, if she takes the left in a red-red-green coalition. The left are in polls at 12 percent, so with her as the third partner, there would probably be a clear majority. A cooperation with CDU or FDP, however, the SPD has excluded by Board decision. Of course, it is unclear whether a new management team without Sieling would still feel bound to it after a blatant electoral defeat.
But would red-red-green also fit in content? Finally, the Greens after the election should also be courted by the CDU: A Jamaican coalition of CDU, Greens and FDP would be the CDU's only way to power. Which camp will the Greens gain majority?
. (tagsToTranslate) Politics (t) Bremen (t) Landtag Electoral (t) Alliance 90 / The Greens (t) SPD (t) CDU (t) Jamaica Coalition (t) The Left