It is early to evaluate the impact of the conflict but, without a doubt, it is one more uncertainty in an economic panorama that was already complex. It is the answer that is most repeated these days in Marrakech, where the International Monetary Fund (IMF and the World Bank They organize their annual meeting this week, when the different authorities are asked what the economic consequences of the war between Israel and Hamas will be. This is how, for example, the first vice president of the Government responded, Nadia Calvinoin a meeting that ended on Tuesday with the Spanish media present in the Moroccan city, and this is how the managing director of the IMF herself responded this Thursday, Georgieva Kristalina.
It is “too early” to evaluate the impact of the conflict, stated the head of the Fund in a meeting with the media, who, however, did not avoid making it clear that “it is a new cloud on the horizon of the global economy“. And the horizon of that world economy, according to the Fund itself, is the worst growth prospects in “decades.”
This is what appears in the updated forecasts that the IMF presented in Marrakech and does not include the possible consequences of the war at all. “The economy is limping, not running,” states the Fund’s report, which also reflects how the prospects for global growth have been weakening very significantly since the great financial crisis until today.
Calviño, for his part, instead of “a new cloud” spoke of another “uncertainty” that is added to those that already existed “in a context of economic slowdown”. “We share the desire that there be no escalation of violence in the area. This is the message that is being repeated in the meetings we are having,” she said when asked by the media. That is, among the numerous leaders who met in Marrakech there is an undoubted concern and they openly discuss it among themselves.
The Minister of Economy also stressed that the war unleashes “enormous uncertainty on the geopolitical flank”, and the Secretary of the Treasury of the United States, Janet Yellet, She was confident that the economy would be able to make a “soft landing” in its deceleration process. This is what the IMF was betting on before the conflict and where Yellen remains, although she also acknowledged during her stay in Marrakech that the conflict “raises additional concerns.”