04 October, 05:30
The Ministry of Finance has estimated the consequences of falling oil prices at $ 10 a barrel
The Ministry of Finance has calculated the budget losses when the price of a barrel of Ural oil drops to $ 10. The expert believes that such a scenario is unlikely. The prudent forecasts of the Ministry of Economic Development assume that in 2020 raw materials will fall to $ 42.5
Photo: Egor Aleev / TASS
The Ministry of Finance has estimated budget losses due to shocks in the commodity markets, writes the Izvestia newspaper with reference to the draft budget for the period 2020-2022. In the worst case, Urals oil prices will fall to $ 10 a barrel. and will remain at that level for 10 years.
In the first year of falling prices at $ 10 a barrel, the budget will receive less than 5% of GDP. If, after this, oil does not rise in price for 10 years, the treasury will lose an income of 70% of GDP, according to the publication of the Ministry of Finance.
Scenario with oil falling to $ 10 a barrel. Among the shocking options for the development of the situation, this is the most radical, says Alexander Suslin, head of the Taxation section of the Economic Expert Group.
"The calculation of the damage in case of apocalypse is rather a purely technical task. Based on extremely low indicators, it is easier to assess the sensitivity of the economy to more subtle changes in key markets, "he said. In his view, the negative effect of oil prices will smooth out the weakening of the national currency and the increase in budget revenues in terms of ruble.