Even the ruble, which until then had held firm despite the expected mobilization, began to fall in value. On Wednesday morning, the dollar gained 1.4 rubles to 62 rubles to the dollar, while the euro gained almost 80 kopecks to 61.4 rubles. Later, the ruble began to regain its positions and at around 10 am. 40 minutes began to strengthen against the euro again, he writes bbc.com.
Russian markets also fell on Tuesday – mobilization was already expected, and the authorities of the Donetsk People’s Republic and Luhansk People’s Republic and the partially Russian-occupied regions of Kherson and Zaporozhye announced that “referendums” on joining Russia were being prepared. On Tuesday, the Moscow Stock Exchange index fell by more than 8 percent.
Analysts directly associate such changes in the stock exchange with political news and increasing geopolitical risks. “It seems that the Moscow stock market index is approaching the lows of recent years,” wrote the authors of the economic blog MMI.
Russian markets have been relatively stable in recent months despite more than six months of war in Ukraine and sanctions against Russia.
The mobilization triggered a wave of recession likely due to fear of how it would affect the country’s economy, which is already in the best shape.
Olga Shamina, economics editor for the BBC’s Russia service, said that so far most forecasts indicate that the crisis will be quite long, but not very drastic. The impact of trade sanctions will only be felt in the distant future, when Russia’s technological lag behind the rest of the world will increase even further.
“Mobilization could fundamentally change these predictions.” In reality, part of the population will go to war, which means they will not work or spend money. Therefore, production and consumption will decrease.
The work of companies will also be directed to military needs, which means that the production of “civilian” goods and investment in their own development will be greatly reduced.
In fact, a crisis that can be mild and prolonged can turn into a deep recession and a slow recovery. This is what can scare investors,” she commented.