The tense calm with which the markets have coexisted in recent days is coming to an end. Investors have started to seek refuge in gold, in the traditional one (gold, which beat 1,900 dollars), but also in the black goldas oil is known, which rises 6% in the week and is on its way to $90 per barrel. Only on Friday its price shot up more than 4%, and the same thing happened with the American West Texas, which exceeded $86. Neither Israel nor Palestine are major producers, but the key to everything is that the conflict gains breadth and crosses borders.
“The Hamas attacks on Israeli territory, ironically coinciding with the 50th anniversary of the Yom Kippur War, have occurred in a period of exceptionally high oil prices and in a completely different industry, but most likely have bullish implications.” on crude oil, and the big question is for how long,” Citi analysts ask. It is taken for granted that the White House, historically an ally of Israel, will impose new sanctions on Iranian exports. It is the eighth largest oil producer in the world and also a major financial support for Hamas fighters. The rotary The Wall Street Journal assumed a few days ago that Iran had supported the Hamas attack that “had been preparing for many weeks,” according to the newspaper.
This conflict has caught him with a changed step. It had been falling for several weeks due to the expectation of lower demand worldwide. But it could not be. If the conflict escalates to other countries, analysts are clear that the price will skyrocket above $100 because there are fewer and fewer players left in the global oil puzzle. It must be taken into account that the market was already tense with Russia (and the sanctions imposed due to the invasion of Ukraine) off the map. It is the third largest producer of crude oil, with a tenth of the global share. If Iran now enters the equation, and especially Saudi Arabia – the second largest producer -, this affects another 16% of the total.
But while the market looks at oil, natural gas is what has really imploded. Its price shoots up 53% in six days. And this is because, after Russia, banned from the international scene, Iran, Qatar and Saudi Arabia are among the largest producers and the same pattern is repeated. The CEO of JP Morgan has dared to warn in a talk with journalists that “it could be the most dangerous time we have seen in decades.”
Iran is one of the flanks involved in the conflict, it remains to be seen to what extent. Another territory to take into account is Saudi Arabia. The last page that he had written at the diplomatic level was a principle of agreement with Israel, where Washington acted as a mediator to win one more medal. But the escalation of war has ruined this option. Goldman Sachs, in the least bad scenario, considering that Saudi Arabia “maintains its production stable at 9 million barrels per day in 2024, would cause an increase in the price of Brent to 104 dollars” within twelve months. But if the conflict expands, from Bloomberg Economics They estimate that the repercussions on the black gold They will be noticed much more. Its experts calculate crude oil at $150 and a strong recession in the economy, with a drop of 1.7% globally. These are higher prices than those seen in the midst of the 2008 financial crisis, when they reached $140.