the rate of progression reaches unity in Casablanca

Synthetic reminder of the historical evolution of recent COVID-19 figures without forecasts.

All data is updated daily from Ministry of Health sites[1]. Even though authoritative voices have accused them of not reflecting reality, these are the only data we have.


The table below gives the weekend figures as of 28/08/2022.

The two graphs below show the segmented evolution in number and percentages of the infected including the deceased (black), the recovered (green) and the active (orange).

The two graphs below show the evolution in number and percentages of active cases including intubated (black), non-invasive breathing (red), non-serious (purple) and other serious cases (green).F3


As shown in Table 1, the actual COVID19 disease figures remained about the same for the period dominated by the “ alpha » than for that dominated by the variant « delta“. But the indices of the last 2 phases, dominated by the “omicron” variant, are clearly different:



Table 1 Status of positive test subjects during the four periods dominated by the different variants

As the variant ” omicron » replaced his predecessor « delta“, the percentage of serious cases among those who tested positive fell appreciably, that of the deceased dramatically.

In addition to the fact that a very large majority of hospitalized for COVID19 are carriers of co-morbidities, between 75 and 90% of those in recent months are not vaccinated (or incomplete). Thus, if the vaccinated people represent two thirds of the population, they represent only one fifth of the hospitalized. We do not know the number of vaccinated among the serious cases to reinforce the vaccination campaign because, if this one makes it possible to better fight the disease, with a variable immunity from one individual to another, it does not prevent it. transmit the virus to less immunized people, especially the unvaccinated.

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To be vaccinated is first to protect yourself today while waiting for tomorrow’s collective immunity, but we protect others today with the barrier measures taken.

Since ” omicron » is transmitted much more easily than « delta“, we had a growth in the number of active cases faster than that of Eid El Adha 2021. Even if the reception capacity of hospitals was saturated in August 2021, this had happened when only 1/3 of the vaccinated population. The reduction of ” contamination space by 2/3 of the vaccinated population has protected against the saturation of Morocco’s 3,000 COVID19 beds. Restraining the economy and education continues to be unjustified.




Tableau 2 Weekly figures for the last two weeks and four-week forecast

Even if Table 2 speaks for itself, let us note that the national progression rate had passed above unity since 08/05, that of Casablanca having risen more quickly, which is shown by the red curves of the graphs in Figure 1.

The national progress rate has continued to be below unity since July 6, 2022.

F7 1

F7 1

Figure 1 Evolution of the rate of progression of the epidemic nationally (left) and in Casablanca alone (right)

As well as a reproduction rate above unity, the remoteness of the number of Provinces where the epidemic is declining from the total of 75 is a bad sign. However, the blue curve of the graph on the left of Figure 1 shows that the number of Provinces where the epidemic is regressing is now the majority.

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The epidemic is regressing in a very large number of Provinces but the rate of progression is growing and has reached unity in Casablanca.


  • Figure 2 (map on the left and classification on the right) shows that with 35,198 cases detected per million inhabitants on 28/08 (i.e. 3.5198% of the population), we find in Morocco all the impacts between that of Casablanca , with 9.9881% of its population and that of Al Haouz, the least impacted at 0.3653%.



Figure 2 Geographic distribution of total provincial incidence reached on 08/28/2022

  • Figure 3 shows the geographic distribution of the variation in provincial incidence over the past week (map on the left and ranking on the right). Figure 3 shows that 54 Provinces are in white because they ended the week with no new infections (compared to 50 last week).



Figure 3 Geographical distribution of the variation in provincial incidence for the week ending 08/28/2022

  • The epidemic is regressing (R<1) now in 52 out of the 75 Provinces (against 59 last week), the rate of progression is insignificant in 25 of them, (against 20 last week).


  • Figure 5 shows the number of weekly (left green scale) and cumulative (right blue scale) vaccinations. New vaccinees reached 1.9 million during the week ending August 14, 2021, during which logistics showed its capabilities. The decrease in the speed of vaccination observed the week of October 17 had increased for 2 weeks (obligation of the vaccination pass) but fell back. Most of the vaccination was done in 9 months.



Figure 5 Total and weekly number of the first doses of vaccines inoculated (the 2th doses are reserved)

  • At the end of the week ending 08/28, 23.381 million inhabitants received the 2th vaccine dose. If the 12.389 million tests were representative of the population, it would include 3.7 million people who are also partially immunized by contamination. Immunization by vaccination and that by contamination overlap to limit ” contamination space« .
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  • Figure 6 shows that the positivity rate would have slightly exceeded its maximum and would begin to decrease.



Figure 6 Retrospective and forecast evolution of the positivity rate

Current simulations show that Morocco would eventually reach 1.326 million proven infections.


[1] Ministry of Health, Official Coronavirus Portal in Morocco, Daily COVID Bulletins Press Conferences, and Daily reports since the stop of these

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