Three trends for global work that will prevail after the covid pandemic

Jonathan Toro – jtoro@larepublica.com.co

In the most recent report by the consulting firm McKinsey & Company on the future of work in the world after covid-19 and 2030, three key labor macro trends were identified that will lead the transformations during the decade: permanent remote work, automation of production and, as had already been announced , the definitive digitization of commerce or e-commerce.

According to the report, the pandemic accelerated these three macro trends, with up to 25% more workers than had been estimated in the past and potentially requiring a change of occupation. The digitization of the world expanded employment options, but implied a reorganization of production systems and human capital.

As mentioned before, the first macro trend is the definitive permanence, in greater or lesser proportions depending on the economic activity, of remote work. The report studied 8,000 trades that could be developed in this way without affecting productivity, and it was evidenced that within these, between 20% and 25% of the labor force in advanced economies will work under this modality at least three of the five days of the week, permanently, for the next decade.

In United States remote work for these trades is represented between 17% and 22%, while in India, workers who will work from home only reach 5% in financial services and 15% in psychology and engineering.

The report indicates that this situation, which is positive for companies due to the reduction of costs associated with production, represents a setback in the working conditions of employees both in advanced economies and in developing countries, since the The virtualization of the productive force will have a negative impact on other sectors of the economy such as leisure, tourism and well-being, because the barrier of working time may be lost.

According to Iván Jaramillo, director of the Labor Observatory of the Universidad del Rosario, the leap to information technologies implies the redefinition of the qualifications and skills system for work, in accordance with the redefinition of the sovereignty of availability times that must be updated so that there is a determining family and work balance in the productivity of the workforce during the decade.

The second trend is the increase in e-commerce and the gradual disappearance of physical commerce. In 2020, the share of e-commerce in the retail sector grew two to five times the rate recorded before the pandemic. This positioning of digital sales was due to the boom in the consumption of applications for homes and online purchases of essential items in the midst of confinement.

The United Kingdom, the United States and China were the countries that reported the highest growth in digital buyers, there the growth was 5.7%, 4.8% and 4.6% respectively, which represented 24% of the total digital sales of the world over the past year.

Based on these results, the trend in this area for the decade includes readjustments or new jobs in the telemedicine, digital banking and streaming entertainment sectors.

Juan Pablo Granada, president of Customer Index Value, affirms that the migration of jobs is directly proportional to changes in society’s consumption habits and how they adjust to new market dynamics, transforming productive roles in the chain.

The global migration towards the automation of industries
The third trend points to an automation of production chains and the immersion of artificial intelligence within the market. According to the study, two-thirds of global organizations increased investment in automation and artificial intelligence significantly during 2020.

Hence, the robotics production figures in China exceeded pre-pandemic levels. This, according to experts, will mean a migration of human capital to other areas of performance, a new academic training and, consequently, a wave of massive layoffs as a result of other needs

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