World To the return of summer for the next week...

To the return of summer for the next week ?

By Regis CREPET, meteorologist
Published the 15/06/20, updated 17/06/20 at 14h02

While this first half of June was marked by a very unstable and temperatures slightly below average season, the weather is not yet in the appointment for this week. However, hope for improvement is designed from the next week, and might be a portent of the last decade of June much more in keeping with the season, warmer and more sunny.

This first half of June has been cooler by about 0.5°C below the normals to the scale of the hexagon, with significant differences : it was warmer at the north-east and south-west for example. Thunderstorms and heavy rain have caused floods notable for this period of the year, in conjunction with depression, ” Nadine “, which remains positioned on the France.

A weekend in the slow improvement

The summer calendar, corresponding to the solsticewill be this Saturday, June 20. So far, the summer will arrive a little late and should get early next week. It will be a weekend transition slowly improving, especially Sunday, with a wind still very strong in the Mediterranean, and thunderstorms on the east side of the hexagon. But the next week should be marked by the grand return of the anticyclone of the Azores.

A possible return of the anticyclone of the Azores

In summer, the weather is mostly brought by the Azores anticyclone, which extends to our country. These high pressures are thus a dam to disturbances atlantic, and limit the development of thunderstorms because the air is stable. This is what might happen in the next week, after 3 weeks of absence.

This configuration would then be synonymous with the return of a time of the season on our country in the beginning of the week. The temperature rise could be quite rapid, especially given the length of days and good exposure to the sun. This favourable evolution in demand, while still confirming, but this scenario weather conditions, we now seems plausible in view of our recent analysis of weather patterns.

Reliability to confirm

This favourable trend should, however, be nuanced : if the return of a time more of the season to the last decade of June seems to be acquired, a few uncertainties remain concerning the precise position of the centers of action. If the anticyclone spreads over the western Europe, it could prevent the growth of perturbations to ocean but rather to promote the upwelling of warm air and thunderstorms from the south of France as early as the middle of the week. But if this anticyclone shifts too quickly to the east, he could let a new degradation to the north-west at the end of the week, re-establishing a gradation cloudy north-south quite a classic.

In conclusionit should be noted that the long period of time disrupted as we know it since the beginning of June should leave place to a feeling much more summer from next week, mainly because of the increase in temperatures, which is the parameter the most reliable. But, depending on the offset of the anticyclone, the great blue sky is not necessarily guaranteed : thunderstorms could erupt in the south before the possible arrival of a weak disturbance to the north of the Loire at the end of the week, after a few days of nice warm weather.

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