The foreign threat that was wagging in 2016 largely traveled from Mexico to Chin. Globalization is only welcome when it benefits the United States and multilateralism is an affront to America first. Immigration remains unwanted, even though the border wall has not grown to the extent of its promises. Abortion is a crime… (will you really believe it?). And the protests and riots that have sprung up like mushrooms here and there since May do not respond to the entrenched racism in security forces crossed by criminal tendencies but are expressions of a radical left, promoter of chaos and that must be crushed. In his terms, social reform is unthinkable and the United States that he proposes must be, despite the rhetoric against an establishment that in his speech only exists in the Democratic Party and in the press, more of the same.
The danger that the country will become Venezuela, at this point a classic of world rights, adds to the president’s mind the alleged possibility of electoral fraud. As the pandemic can increase the number of votes that are cast by mail and he himself was in charge of defunding the postal service, there is no way to guarantee that the system will respond to the demands. Impeccable reasoning.
As in previous elections, when all the polls that assured the victory of Hillary Clinton, Trump arrives at a disadvantage. However, two pieces of information encourage his campaign.
On the one hand, his Democratic rival, Joseph Biden, did not succeed in getting vote intention studies to record the stretch that usually follows party conventions. Could it be the virtual nature that the pandemic imposed on the opposition mega-act the cause of its limited impact? Or is there something about the 77-year-old moderate applicant that doesn’t quite generate enthusiasm?
Second, the advantage of this is narrowed in the oscillating states, where the fight for the Electoral College will be centered. It should be remembered, in this regard, that in 2016 Clinton prevailed by two percentage points in the popular vote, but lost the number of delegates by beating due to a more friendly geographical distribution of the vote for what was then the opposition.
Survey averages are statistical monstrosities that mix different works in methodology and timing, but they can be used to build a certain composition of place. According to the Real Clear Politics site, Biden’s national advantage narrowed slightly, unrelated to the Democratic National Convention, to 7.1 percentage points. Meanwhile, in the fight for the key districts (Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Florida and Arizona) it fell to just 3.7 points.
Voters most sensitive to the human drama of the pandemic will reproach Trump for his erratic handling of it, which largely explains why the United States is a world record with almost 6 million infected and some 180,000 deaths. Other Americans, more sensitive to the economy, will be divided into two large groups: those who remember that before COVID-19 the country enjoyed an expansion that seemed to have no end and those who, less understanding, suffer unemployment of the order of 10 % and the collapse of the product, of 31.73% year-on-year in the second quarter, as announced yesterday.
The crisis, both in its health and economic aspects, in principle, should play in favor of the opposition. That would justify the search for the democratic formula of occupying the political center in search of the social majority it needs. That has been, after all, the traditional strategy in American politics.
However, one wonders if Trump’s populism has been just a four-year anomaly or if, on the contrary, the globalization that he has criticized (although, of course, without ever challenging it) has profoundly dislocated the social body of the United States. That will depend on whether a new era in the hyperpower dawns on November 4 or whether the moderate Biden wakes up surprised by the way the world has changed around him.