Thursday (24th) is Thanksgiving in the United States, and all financial markets in the United States, including the stock market, are closed for one day. Trading is only half a day on Friday, and the market closes at 1:00 pm local time, which is equivalent to 22:30 on Friday night to 2:00 am on Saturday, Taipei time, 3 hours earlier than usual.
This year, before Thanksgiving and Black Friday, U.S. stocks rose for two consecutive days. Market sentiment was boosted by the minutes of the Fed’s latest meeting, which suggested that the Fed may slow down the pace of rate hikes.
Historically, after Thanksgiving, traders also prepare for the year-end holidays.
Bespoke Investment Group notes that from the close on the Wednesday before Thanksgiving through the end of the year,S&P 500 IndexIt rose about three-quarters of the time, averaging 1.93 percent.
But further considering the year with a decline of at least 10% throughout the year, the probability of a positive return from Thanksgiving to the end of the year has dropped to about 50%, with an average decline of 0.1%.