## US Shifts Focus in Western Sahara Dispute as Regional Dynamics Change
This weakening has encouraged Washington to push for an end to the diplomatic deadlock and to prioritise economic and developmental issues over the rhetoric of the so-called ‘Axis of Resistance’, wich has delivered neither development nor stability.
Diplomatic sources note that Boulos’s visit added fresh momentum to US efforts. Boulos is credited with having previously helped secure a breakthrough in the Grate Lakes region, brokering peace between the Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. In this context, researchers at the Paris-based Institute for International and Strategic Relations (IRIS) stated that Boulos’s tour of North Africa came at the right time, with the region experiencing a strategic vacuum caused by Europe’s withdrawal and the preoccupation of regional powers with their internal crises.
A half-century dispute
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The Western Sahara conflict dates back to the Cold War and has exacted a significant and long-term economic, political, and social toll on the region.Washington recognises that the protracted Algerian-Moroccan dispute harms the entire region, squandering opportunities for growth and prosperity, while serving Russia’s interests as Algeria’s principal arms supplier. Estimates indicate that Algeria raised its defense budget to around $25bn in 2025, continuing to rely in part on Russian weaponry, making it historically one of moscow’s largest customers.
Morocco, for its part, has expanded its defence ties with the US, signing arms deals worth billions of dollars. These include the modernisation of its fleet of F-16 Viper fighters, Apache helicopters, and various defensive missiles. Unofficial reports suggest possible deals involving F-35s, F-18s, or F-15s. Morocco also maintains partnerships with US defence giant Lockheed Martin, including maintenance centres and industrial projects in Casablanca.
While this arms race has raised the level of military technology, it has also increased the risk of confrontation between the two nations, diverting resources away from development in a region where the average per capita income remains between $5,000 and $7,000 a year. With security and stability, these levels could easily double.
In remarks to Algeria’s Al-Watan newspaper, Boulos said the US recognises Morocco’s sovereignty over its Southern provinces and supports its proposal for “serious, credible, and realistic autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty as the only basis for a just and lasting resolution” to the Western Sahara conflict.
A move towards settlement?
This marked the first time in half a century that Algerian authorities had allowed the publication of an interview containing an explicit acknowledgement of Morocco’s sovereignty over the area, raising questions about whether it signalled a move towards settlement or was merely coincidental.
In the same context, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated Trump’s call for all parties to engage without delay in negotiations based on Morocco’s autonomy proposal as the sole framework for a mutually acceptable solution.
At the same time, Algerian President Abdelmadjid Tebboune admitted that Algeria had spent vast sums on the Sahara issue, calling it “the wealth of Qarun”, in reference to the heavy economic burden of supporting the Polisario Front. The Sahrawi nationalist liberation movement seeks independence for Western Sahara.Analysts interpreted Tebboune’s statement as a signal that Algeria might seek economic compensation in exchange for political flexibility.
Meanwhile, Algerian opposition journalist walid Kabir said “the military regime in Algeria can’t afford to reject trump’s governance”, especially as the US Congress considers a bill to designate the Polisario Front a terrorist organisation. This move, according to The Washington Post, is because of the movement’s military ties with I
Shifting US-North Africa Relations: A Focus on Morocco and a Cooling with Tunisia
The United States is strategically recalibrating its economic and political relationships in north Africa, increasingly favoring Morocco while simultaneously expressing concerns over developments in Tunisia. This shift is reflected in trade volumes, investment deals, and diplomatic stances, signaling a potential realignment of US interests in the region.
Morocco: A Growing US Partner
Morocco has become Washington’s key partner in the Maghreb, benefiting from a 2006 free trade agreement that has substantially boosted bilateral commerce.In the first half of 2024, trade between the US and Morocco exceeded $3.76 billion, representing half of all US trade with North Africa ($7.23 billion) [https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/africa/morocco]. This makes Morocco the largest US trade partner in the Maghreb region.
Despite its close proximity to the European Union – its largest trading partner with $77 billion in trade in 2023 – Morocco remains a significant consumer of US goods. A major indicator of strengthening ties is the ongoing negotiations between Royal Air Maroc and Boeing for a considerable fleet expansion, potentially involving the purchase of 150 new aircraft [https://www.reuters.com/business/aerospace-defence/royal-air-maroc-eyes-150-boeing-planes-minister-says-2024-02-29/]. This deal would not only solidify the airline’s growth but also represent a significant win for US manufacturing.
Cooling Relations with Tunisia
In contrast to the strengthening US-Moroccan relationship, ties with Tunisia have become strained since President Kais saied’s rise to power in 2021. The US has voiced criticism regarding Tunisia’s handling of migration, especially concerning the treatment of sub-saharan African migrants, and its approach to Jewish communities [https://www.hrw.org/news/2023/07/27/tunisia-president-saieds-actions-threaten-rights].
trade figures reflect this cooling. Up to June 2024, US-Tunisia trade totaled $837 million, with US exports accounting for $281 million and Tunisian exports (primarily olive oil) reaching $556 million, resulting in a US trade deficit of $274.6 million [https://ustr.gov/countries-regions/africa/tunisia]. Furthermore, the US has expressed opposition to International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans to the Tunisian government, contributing to the country’s ongoing financial challenges and liquidity shortages [https://www.reuters.com/world/africa/us-opposes-imf-loan-tunisia-unless-government-changes-course-2024-03-22/]. This stance reflects concerns about Tunisia’s democratic trajectory and economic policies.
Key Takeaways
Morocco is the US’s primary trade partner in the Maghreb, with trade exceeding $3.76 billion in the first half of 2024.
Royal Air Maroc is negotiating a major aircraft purchase from Boeing, signaling deepening economic ties.
US-Tunisia relations have deteriorated due to concerns over human rights, migration policies, and democratic backsliding.
The US has opposed IMF loans to Tunisia, exacerbating the country’s economic difficulties.
Looking ahead
The diverging paths of US relations with Morocco and Tunisia highlight a strategic shift in Washington’s approach to north Africa. The US appears to be prioritizing stability and economic partnership with Morocco, while expressing increasing reservations about Tunisia’s political and economic direction. This trend is likely to continue, potentially leading to a more pronounced realignment of US influence in the region. The situation warrants continued monitoring,particularly regarding the impact of US policy on Tunisia’s economic stability and the broader geopolitical landscape of North Africa.