But really the Third Pole from Matteo Renzi e Carlo Calenda will succeed in to shift the balance in the elections of 25 September? The French newspaper The echoes is convinced that moderate voters of center rightfrightened by sovereignty and fromEuroscepticism from Melons e Salvinithey can contact Italy Viva e Action. Its two leaders, «despite their personal enmity, want to build a centrist force accredited with the 15% from polls more optimistic. Reformer, liberal ed pro-Europeanshould resume the agenda Draghi. This third pole is convinced that it can be the tip of the balance in a highly unstable Italian parliament. He has the hope that the former governor of the ECB will remain at Palazzo Chigi ».
The needle of the balance?
The problem is that the scale is broken. Or better. Even if he manages to get through the 10% – and the votes of 5 Star Movementcredited today by a similar percentage – and removed all votes to the right, the affirmation of Third Pole it would not shift the balance of elections. Who would still see the victory of the center-right. A simulation of YouTrend in collaboration with Cattaneo Zanetto of whom he speaks today The print claims that I am alone 14 today i single-member colleges of the Chamber where the distance between center-right and center left it is lower than the percentages credited to the alliance between Iv and Calenda. These are colleges concentrated in large cities such as Roma e Milanoor Torino e Genova.
In those constituencies, the division between the center-left and the Third Pole will clearly benefit the center-right. To the Senatewhere the colleges are larger, only in 5 the third pole would be decisive for the defeat of Read and companions. TO Romain Tuscany e in Romagna. This is the most realistic scenario. Taking the current polls for granted and assuming that a (good) part of the voters who will vote for Action or Italia Viva are center-left. And then subtract votes from that side and not from others. As we know, pollsters such as Alessandra Ghisleri di Euromedia Research argue but that things are more complicated than that.
The YouTrend analysis on the Third Pole
The analysis of YouTrend on the Third Pole, however, it continues. “Let’s assume that they really come to 10% and these more votes, about a million, take them all away a Come on Italy and to the center-right, ”he says Lorenzo Pregliasco, founding partner of the survey company. In this case they would be contestable only 14 seats in the Chamber e 8 in the Senate. These are colleges of the Sudyes Bari a Palermo as far as Power it’s at Cagliari. Along with a couple of areas of Roma and some in the Milanese. And to Aosta, Parma, Rimini and Trieste. But at the start they are 114 the colleges clearly colored blue, i.e. those in which the advantage of the center-right is so wide that it seems unbridgeable. With an alleged exploit of the Third Pole 3 colleges of the Camera would go to the center and 11 would reopen. To the Senate two seats would go to Letta & Co and others 6 would come back in the balance.
“Even at best, managing to steal all those votes a BerlusconiSalvini and Meloni – explains Pregliasco – the center-right would remain clearly in the majority, with 240 deputies and 120 senators“. The goal of the non-victory of Meloni or that, even more ambitious, of the substantial tie appears far, far away. And Draghi from Palazzo Chigi should dislodge. In recent days Calenda has controversial precisely with YouTrend claiming a closeness between the polling company and the Democratic Party. Pregliasco has it replied that the electoral campaign renders unclear. Who knows if after this simulation the controversy will return eye.