In the new week, a clear direction for investors should once again equal the squaring of the circle. Further questions regarding the war of trade and the upcoming new elections in Great Britain speak less for a new high for the year and more for greater volatility.
In addition, uncertainty about the survival of the grand coalition in Berlin should rise after the SPD members have chosen the GroKo critics Saskia Esken and Norbert Walter-Borjans as the new SPD chairman, according to the result of the ballot published on Saturday. Even though December is generally a good month for the stock market, market expert Milan Cutkovic from online broker AxiTrader sees a successful end to the hitherto strong stock market year 2019 "far from guaranteed".
His high of 13,374 points in the previous week was not beaten by the leading index in recent days. Nevertheless, the year-on-year increase of more than a quarter achieved so far is in some cases significantly above the estimates of some banks of a year ago. For example, BayernLB expected a final score of just 11,500 points, while Deutsche Bank forecast 12,300 points and Commerzbank 12,500 points. The experts at Helaba and DZ Bank have come much closer to the current level of around 13,270 points, with 13,200 and 13,300 respectively expected.
Since the beginning of November, however, not much has happened in the Dax. This sideways movement could use the leading index on the one hand, to gather new strength, it said in a comment by chart analysts of the Swiss bank UBS.
If it goes well, he could crack the current resistance at 13,300 to 13,350 points and aim at the previous high of 13,596 points from January 2018. In the worse case, but it could also go back to the round mark of 13,000 point, which would cloud the situation in the larger picture and a longer price decline would likely.
The hope of the optimists
Optimists make their hopes for a year-end rally these days again, including on "Black Friday", "Cyber Monday" and ever at the beginning of Christmas consumption. On the other hand, there are still unresolved political issues that have left their mark on the stock market in recent months. For example, a new parliament will be elected in the United Kingdom on 12th December for the third time since mid-2015. This will show how the persistent topic Brexit continues. According to recent polls, British Prime Minister Boris Johnson's Tories could reach a majority, implementing EU exit plans by 31 January 2020.
At the same time, the prospects of a trade agreement between China and the United States ("Phase 1 Deal") have recently dimmed again. Both sides are so far not ready to give in sensitive areas, analyzed economist Bernd Weidensteiner of the Commerzbank the situation.
On the one hand, America is not prepared to reduce the imposed additional duties, which, according to state Chinese media, is a key prerequisite for the conclusion of a Phase 1 agreement. On the other hand, China does not seem to want to fix fixed purchases of agricultural products from the US, Weidensteiner wrote, which in turn is important for Donald Trump in view of the upcoming presidential elections.
According to market expert Andreas Lipkow of the Comdirect Bank, there is no sense in the short term of falling into actionism. "Much more, the eyes are already on the last trading month and the upcoming 'window dressing'."
By this, the expert means a development which often occurs at the end of the year, in which asset managers top off their portfolio with well-stocked shares so that their own expertise can be underlined. In return, badly traded shares are often sold quickly and "mistakes" of the past few months are "swept under the carpet". This is often referred to as "portfolio cosmetics".
Previous Dax winners, including Adidas, MTU and RWE, could be in demand. The biggest losers since the beginning of the year include Deutsche Lufthansa, Wirecard and Deutsche Bank.
After the reporting season has expired, corporate figures are unlikely to play a major role in the coming days. In the middle of the week, Siemens will draw a final balance sheet from the past financial year as part of its annual report. The results of the fourth quarter and the outlook for the coming year had already been announced by the group at the beginning of November.
The MDax-listed medical technology group Carl Zeiss Meditec will also be giving final figures on Friday. According to preliminary findings from the end of October, the company did not perform as well as originally thought in the operating result in the 2018/2019 financial year.
In addition, investors could be kept on track by one or another of the economic developments. For example, up to the middle of the week, buoyant sentiment data are expected from the eurozone and America. The US employment report will be added on Friday, with market experts still optimistic about the good employment situation. Looking ahead to new data from German industrial production in October, observers still hope for signs of recovery.
. (tagsToTranslate) Bernd Weidensteiner (t) Saskia Esken (t) Norbert Walter-Borjans (t) SPD (t) Deutsche Bank (t) ISIN_DE0005140008 (t) Commerzbank