Among the different models and scenarios presented to the audience of politicians and social partners, the worst case scenario predicts an exponential growth of 30% to 40% of cases. The Portuguese curve, which according to experts, seems to be starting to flatten – whether it is a trend or not, is not yet clear -, is currently below that of Italy and Spain. In addition, experts said, the speed of contagion is slowing: that is, between this meeting and last Tuesday, the number of people who are infected by each positive person has fallen. However, if we look at the number of new cases per 100,000 inhabitants, the Portuguese curve remains more accelerated than that of Spain and Italy, notes another source. That is, “There has been a relevant change in the last few days, but we are a long way from singing victory”.
Despite these data, however, nothing points “so that the state of emergency and measures of social distance can be alleviated”, observes Luís Mira, secretary-general of the Portuguese Farmers’ Confederation (CAP), who was at the meeting. In fact, health professionals left the caution that, if there is a decrease in the intensity of the measures, there could be an increase in the number of new cases. “The specialists are clear and objective in the explanation, they are just not objective in the answers that people want, because they have no answer, they explain this incessantly”, says Luís Mira.
António Costa, sources from the meeting reported to the Observer, spoke at the end of the meeting and referred to the “thousandths in the R0” that can affect the height of the peak. The prime minister wanted, once again, to make it clear that he has to make political decisions when there is a lot of uncertainty on the part of scientists and specialists, which makes this decision difficult. “The Prime Minister was the first to recognize that the measures taken are always taken on the basis of partial and uncertain information,” says a source.