The first major event of the 2020 presidential cycle will not take place in Iowa or New Hampshire. The next round of fundraising reports will not be the next spring round, nor the peaks on the counter of applause for the first requests for livestock for democratic candidate candidates. Instead it will unfold in the capital of the nation in the test of will between the leader of the new House and President Trump Democratic.
That leader could be Nancy Pelosi, the current leader of the Chamber's minority and former president of the Chamber. She was the protagonist of many Republican ads published during the election in the fall and a favorite of the president. Republicans are said to be a toxic political figure for the GOP base. He is also a tough and shrewd politician and a skilled lawmaker who led his party to victory last Tuesday.
Many Democratic candidates have escaped from her during the campaign, however, swearing not to support her for another term as a democratic leader. Mostly he ignored that during the campaign, prompting candidates to do everything they needed, but to "just win, baby", as you said during an appearance at Harvard & # 39; s Institute of Politics in October.
His post-election moves have not signaled any concern on his part that he will not be elected speaker. The day after the elections, he held a press conference immediately after the president's meeting with the White House press corps. He followed it with an interview in the early evening at CNN and with steps and announcements on House's business. She continues to be the face of a Democratic Party that now has the power to confront the president in ways they could not do in the last two years.
Hairy plays cards close. The moment of truth for those in his part who would not like to see you as a speaker will come soon. Already from this week there could be a better indication of how real the threat to his speaker offer is. At this point, there is no challenger that has come forward, only the names have been banned. Your allies continue to express the almost total trust you will prevail. The next few days will reveal if you underestimate the desire for new leadership in a new home.
Regardless of the outcome of the election for the leadership, what democratic leaders do with the power they now have could increase the likelihood that the 2020 presidential candidate will win the White House, or could diminish them and give Trump an advantage over re-election . C & # 39; is a precedent for the latter that provides lessons for the new Democratic majority in the House.
At this time 24 years ago, Newt Gingrich was the king of Washington, the giant killer who had put an end to 40 years of democratic rule in the House. The Republican of Georgia had the whole center stage, in Washington and at the national level, with power and a contract with America that was determined to put in place. Then President Bill Clinton was a politically battered and weakened figure in the aftermath of the mid-term elections in 1994.
A year later, things looked very different. Gingrich was caught in a stalemate with Clinton for the budget, which led to an arrest of the government, for which he and his party received most of the responsibilities. He was caricatured in a New York tabloid like a whiner after complaining he could not talk to the president during a flight on Air Force One. His ability as a speaker was a success, and collateral damage turned out to be Bob Dole's hopes of defeating Clinton in the 1996 election.
Dole, then the Republican leader in the Senate and the first classified for the nomination to the GOP, found himself throughout 1995 as hostage of Gingrich and the noisy Republicans of the Chamber. He was tied to the race with Gingrich and did not have the ability to separate.
At the beginning of the spring of 1996, the Democrats launched a blitz that linked Dole and Gingrich who left a permanent impression on the electorate, the "Dole-Gingrich monster", as Scott Reed called it, which was the person in charge of the Dole campaign in that campaign.
"He was the demonizing of Newt, and Newt took that bait," he said. Reed Trump's suspicions will find something different in Pelosi, if she is the speaker who starts in January. "I think Pelosi is much smarter, more lucid and more understanding of work," he said. "He has had work experience, and he understands the back and forth with the president and the White House."
Pelosi has defined an agenda for the Democratic House, starting with a package that would include reforms in election campaign funding, voting rights and government operations. The agenda includes health care and infrastructure. With regard to health care and infrastructure, the president could be prepared to deal with the Democrats, a mutually beneficial meeting that could happen if the stars align themselves.
But it is the other part of the Democratic agenda that will complicate the relationship with Trump, as he clarified in his post-election press conference. House Democrats will have the power to supervise the administration, which the current Republican majority has not done. How far and how aggressive is the problem that will set the tone for the next year, perhaps more. Trump warned of the total war if the Democrats walked that road, without specifying its red lines.
Pelosi was cautious and cautious in his comments on investigative powers, in particular on the question of the opening of an investigation on impeachment. He has had regular contacts with legislators who will oversee key committees. He repeatedly said that there should be no effort to impeach a president for political reasons.
If special adviser Robert S. Mueller III makes a report that involves crimes or constitutional violations, the Assembly will almost certainly move by impeachment. But it is the gray area between the supervision of this or that agency and an investigation focused on the president that will require the exercise of the judgment of the leader of the Democrats in the House.
What no one can predict at this point is Pelosi's pressure, if she is a speaker, and other important Democrats will feel from a grassroots basis eager to see the president directly hired. Republicans with experience at Capitol Hill predict that pressure on Democrats to move against the president could be overwhelming.
One noted that many Democrats say that they must be careful not to exaggerate and compare this to the Republicans who said closing the government was not a good idea. "Then they received 5,000 calls a day from citizens and they did it," he said. "It is difficult to think that the Democrats will not be prisoners of this".
Pelosi knows his caucus, which was his greatest strength as a leader. But the mid-term elections recalled that the party's basic supporters now have significant power. If this manifests itself as a sinister version of the Freedom Caucus in the House remains to be seen, but what has been unleashed in opposition to the president will be felt by the House Democrats in the coming months. As a Republican deputy said of Pelosi, "You must avoid becoming an obstacle in Trump's re-election offer."
First, however, it must reject a challenge among its ranks. Her allies say she is ready for these challenges, from within and from the White House. They will be the most important proofs of his long career.