Will the shipbuilding industry benefit from the soaring exchange rate… “Great impact on performance”

[아이뉴스24 박은경 기자] It is analyzed that the performance of the shipbuilding industry, semiconductor, display, and automobile industries is positively affected by the soaring and fluctuating exchange rate volatility.

According to Korea Credit Ratings on the 1st, the average won-dollar exchange rate in the first quarter was 1,205 won, up 5.30% from the previous year’s average of 1,144 won.

This is the highest figure since the second quarter of 2020, when the exchange rate soared due to the initial spread of the novel coronavirus infection (COVID-19) and the aftermath of the China-China trade conflict. This is similar to the first quarter of 2016 (1,201 won).

As much as the dollar fluctuates, the industry is also affected. In particular, the shipbuilding industry, which has a high proportion of net exports, and semiconductor, display, and automobile sectors are expected to be affected.

A view of a row of ships in the harbor. [사진=대우조선해양]

Seo Min-ho, a researcher at Korea Ratings’ corporate evaluation division, said, “The increase in the exchange rate is positive for industries such as shipbuilding, semiconductor, display, and automobile, which have a net export position. It is analyzed that the impact of the exchange rate fluctuations on earnings is the biggest.”

He also evaluated that “semiconductor, display, and automobile are also industries with high real exchange rate sensitivity.”

In terms of the proportion of exports to total output, shipping was the highest at 89.5%, followed by ▲semiconductor 87.2% ▲shipbuilding 76.2% ▲automobile 55.0% ▲display 47.%.

In particular, in the case of shipbuilding and overseas construction, most contracts are made in dollars, and sales are generated based on this. Therefore, as exchange rate fluctuations within the contract period are reflected as changes in KRW sales, sales fluctuate as much as exchange rate fluctuations.

In the case of the semiconductor industry, which has the highest proportion of exports, it was found that sales and expenses fluctuate by KRW 900 billion and KRW 0.3 billion, respectively, for a 1% change in the exchange rate.

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Meanwhile, the exchange rate was expected to remain at a high level in the first half of this year, but it is expected to enter a downward trend in the second half of this year.

Researcher Seo said, “The US Federal Reserve is planning to raise interest rates six more times this year and the balance sheet is also expected to shrink within this year, so the strong dollar is expected to continue in the first half of this year.” This is expected to gradually halve and show a slight decline due to the resolving of policy uncertainty in the US.”

/Reporter Park Eun-kyung([email protected])



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