2024-01-21 18:50:00
【Current Affairs Observation】
Original title: The three major factions announced the dissolution of the Kishida regime. What will happen next?
Bi Zhenshan
On January 19, local time, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida announced the dissolution of his Liberal Democratic Party faction “Kishida Faction”, followed by the “Abe Faction” and the “Nigeria Faction” also announced their dissolution. Some analysts pointed out that disbanding the faction was a measure taken by Kishida to deal with the “black gold” scandal, but this move caused chaos within the Liberal Democratic Party, and it remains to be seen whether it can restore public support.
On January 19, in response to the “black money” scandal of Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party, the Special Investigation Department of the Tokyo District Prosecutor’s Office filed a lawsuit against eight people from the Liberal Democratic Party on the grounds of suspected violation of the “Political Funds Regulation Act.” According to Japanese media reports, those prosecuted include “Abe faction” accounting chief Junichiro Matsumoto, “Nigeria faction” former accounting chief Nagai and others, “Kishida faction” former accounting chief Kazuo Sasaki, and “Abe faction” Congressman Ohno Taimasa and Yachi Tanikawa.
According to prosecutors’ investigation, from 2018 to 2023, the “Abe faction” involved more than 600 million yen in secret funds, the “Second Order faction” involved more than 200 million yen, and the “Kishida faction” had about 35 million yen in unregistered income. In the political funds revenue and expenditure report.
In response to this incident, Fumio Kishida apologized on the 19th and stated that he would dissolve the “Kishida faction” of his Liberal Democratic Party faction and close his office. Kishida said that Japanese people believe that factions have become a tool for Liberal Democratic Party members of Congress to obtain money and positions, so new rules for factional activities should be formulated.
After the “Kishida faction” announced its dissolution, the “Abe faction”, the largest faction in the Liberal Democratic Party, also announced its dissolution on the evening of the 19th. “Abe faction” chairman Shiotani bowed and apologized for “betraying the Japanese people” at the “Abe faction” general meeting. Toshihiro Nikai, chairman of the “Nikai Faction” and former secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, also apologized for the “black gold” scandal that day and said that “in order to regain political trust,” the “Nikai Faction” decided to disband.
Regarding the dissolution of the three major factions of the Liberal Democratic Party, some Japanese media called it a “political earthquake”, while others believed that this was a “big move” that cost Kishida his political life. But in fact, it was no accident that Kishida got to where he is today.
In November 2023, Japanese media exposed the existence of political “black gold” in the “Abe faction”. The faction requires members to sell tickets when holding fundraising rallies. If the sales quota is exceeded, the excess money may be returned to the members. This money is not included in the political fund income and expenditure account, but becomes secret political funds. Subsequently, the “Second Order School” and “Kishida School” were also exposed to this problem. The Special Investigation Department of the Tokyo District Prosecutor’s Office therefore intervened in the investigation.
At the beginning of the scandal, Fumio Kishida first announced that he would no longer serve as the president of the “Kishida faction” Hongike Kai to distance himself from political funds. However, as the scandal fermented, Kishida reorganized the cabinet on December 14, 2023, removing 4 cabinet ministers and 5 deputy ministers from the “Abe faction” related to the “black gold” scandal, and 3 senior officials from the Liberal Democratic Party from the “Abe faction” Also resigned. Japanese media believe that Kishida wants to “survive with a broken arm” and sacrifice the “Abe faction” to reduce the pressure on governance.
Since then, Japanese prosecutors have conducted multiple searches on the “Abe faction” and the “Second Order faction”. Kishida said on January 4 that he would form a new agency within the Liberal Democratic Party to promote reforms to increase the transparency of political funding for factions within the party. On January 7, Representative Yoshitaka Ikeda of the “Abe faction” was arrested on suspicion of violating the “Political Funds Regulation Act”, becoming the first member of Congress to be arrested in connection with the “black money” scandal.
On January 11, the “Political Innovation Headquarters”, a new organization established by Kishida, held its first meeting. Fumio Kishida served as the head of the headquarters, and Taro Aso, vice president of the Liberal Democratic Party, and former Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga served as top advisers. Kishida Fumio said that the Liberal Democratic Party will treat the issue of political funding as the top priority issue to restore the Liberal Democratic Party’s reputation among the people.
However, as the “black gold” scandal continues, the Kishida cabinet’s public support continues to decline, and calls for the Liberal Democratic Party to disband its factions are getting louder. A poll conducted by Japanese media on January 18 showed that 56.3% of Japanese people believed that the Liberal Democratic Party should disband its factions, and 68.3% of the respondents had no expectations for the “Political Innovation Headquarters”.
It was against this background that Fumio Kishida finally proposed to disband the “Kishida Faction”, which in turn caused the “Abe Faction” and the “Nigeria Faction” to follow suit. These three factions have a total of 182 members of Congress, accounting for nearly half of the total number of members of the Liberal Democratic Party. However, Kishida’s move caused chaos within the Liberal Democratic Party. The second largest faction of the Liberal Democratic Party, the “Aso faction” and the third largest faction, the “Motegi faction” both oppose the dissolution of factions and believe that factions have a role in cultivating young people.
Some analysts believe that from “surviving with a broken arm” to purge the “Abe faction” to now “drawing fuel from under the cauldron” to dissolve the faction, Kishida’s purpose has always been to ease the pressure of the “black gold” scandal and maintain his own power. However, Kishida’s move did not receive unanimous support from the Liberal Democratic Party. Some people believed that Kishida was trying to take the opportunity to weaken the power of other factions.
Factional politics have a long history in the Liberal Democratic Party. The greater the faction’s power, the greater its influence on the LDP’s decision-making and personnel arrangements. For this reason, factional politics is also considered by some analysts in Japan to be a source of corruption. Now that Kishida is disbanding the faction, regardless of whether other factions will follow suit, even if all factions are nominally disbanded, they may appear in new guises in the future.
Some Japanese media also pointed out that although Kishida’s response to the “black gold” scandal has become more and more in-depth, he has not shouldered his responsibilities from beginning to end. As the president of the Liberal Democratic Party, Kishida first “passed the blame for the Abe faction”, and then “passed the blame” for the LDP faction. Some members of the Japanese opposition party made it clear that Kishida would be better off disbanding the Liberal Democratic Party than disbanding the “Kishida faction”. Japanese polls show that the Liberal Democratic Party’s support rate has dropped to 14.6%, the lowest support rate for the party since 1960.
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