2026 March Madness: Upset Picks & Bracket Predictions from Expert Model

by Javier Moreno - Sports Editor
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Kansas Jayhawks Face Upset Threat from Cal Baptist Lancers in NCAA Tournament First Round

San Diego, CA – The Kansas Jayhawks (23-10), a No. 4 seed in the East Region of the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Championship, will face the California Baptist Lancers (25-8), a No. 13 seed, in the first round on Friday, March 20, 2026, at Viejas Arena. This marks the first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance for Cal Baptist, while Kansas is making its 36th consecutive tournament appearance.

Lancers Riding Momentum into Tournament Debut

Cal Baptist enters the tournament with a 25-8 record, having won 13 of their last 15 games and securing an automatic bid by upsetting Utah Valley 63-61 in the Western Athletic Conference (WAC) Tournament championship game. The Lancers boast a strong scoring defense, ranking within the top 40 nationally, and are led by WAC Player of the Year Dominique Daniels Jr., who recently scored 41 points in the conference semifinals. They hold a perfect 15-0 record at home but have a 7-7 record on the road and a 3-1 record on neutral courts.

Jayhawks Seek Consistency After Rocky Finish

Kansas, with a 23-10 record, is looking to regain consistency after a 69-47 loss to Houston in the Big 12 semifinals. The Jayhawks will rely on the play of freshman phenom Darryn Peterson, who averages nearly 20 points per game. Kansas is 9-6 all-time as a No. 4 seed in the NCAA Tournament.

Key Matchups and Statistical Overview

While Kansas possesses a size advantage in the frontcourt with players like Flory Bidunga, Cal Baptist’s defense is designed to challenge high-major opponents. Here’s a statistical comparison:

Team Points Per Game Points Against Field Goal % Rebounds Assists Blocks Steals
Cal Baptist 73.0 67.6 43% 39.9 10.3 2.9 5.5
Kansas 75.6 69.4 45% 38.8 14.3 5.7 5.5

Location Advantage for Cal Baptist

The game will be played in San Diego, just 100 miles from the Cal Baptist campus, potentially providing a boost for the Lancers.

Conference Standings

Here’s a look at the final standings for both teams’ respective conferences:

Western Athletic Conference

  • Utah Valley: 14-4
  • California Baptist: 13-5
  • Utah Tech: 11-7
  • UT Arlington: 9-9

Big 12 Conference

  • Arizona: 16-2
  • Houston: 14-4
  • Iowa State: 12-6
  • Kansas: 12-6

Broadcast Information

The game will be broadcast live on ESPN on Friday, March 20, 2026, at 9:45 PM ET. Tickets are available for purchase starting at $99 through VividSeats.

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