Severe Weather Threat: Tornadoes and Damaging Winds Expected Across the South, Midwest, and East
A significant severe weather outbreak is forecast to impact a large portion of the United States, stretching from Texas to the East Coast, on Sunday and Monday, March 15-16, 2026. The primary threats include widespread damaging winds, potentially exceeding 75 mph, and the possibility of tornadoes, including EF2 or greater.
Timing and Geographic Impact
Severe thunderstorms are expected to organize into a squall line by Sunday afternoon and advance eastward throughout the night. This system is riding the warm side of Winter Storm Iona, creating a dynamic weather pattern that combines winter and severe thunderstorm conditions.
- Sunday Afternoon: Squall line formation expected in northeast Texas.
- Sunday Night: The line will surge eastward across the Ohio, lower Mississippi, and Tennessee valleys.
- Monday: Severe weather will spread across much of the East, from north Florida to the Northeast.
Hazards and Risks
The main hazards associated with this weather system are strong winds and tornadoes. The risk profile differs from typical convective outbreaks due to its association with Winter Storm Iona. The wind-driven nature of the system means faster-moving thunderstorms and a greater chance of long-lasting power outages.
- Damaging Winds: Expected to exceed 75 mph in some areas.
- Tornadoes: Embedded tornadoes, potentially EF2 or greater, are possible.
- Power Outages: Widespread and potentially long-lasting outages are likely due to strong winds and tree damage.
- Heavy Rain: The Northeast may experience a band of heavy rain with limited lightning, but still capable of damaging winds and a few tornadoes.
Regional Breakdown
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlined an enhanced (level 3 of 5) risk for severe weather late Sunday night after 10 p.m. Through Monday morning. The rest of Alabama is under a slight (level 2 of 5) risk. The greatest potential for severe weather lies in Northwest Alabama, including Florence, Huntsville, Cullman, Hamilton, and Fayette.
Alabama Specifics
- Birmingham & Tuscaloosa Area (including Shelby County): Expect 3 to 6 hours below freezing temperatures. Residents should cover or bring in tender plants Monday night.
- Chilton County: A brief period below 32 degrees is possible; protecting plants is advised.
- North Alabama (Huntsville, Decatur, Athens, Cullman, Fort Payne, Albertville, Scottsboro, Russellville): Up to 8 to 12 hours below freezing, with temperatures potentially dropping close to 20 degrees by Tuesday morning.
Potential for Snow Flurries
Behind the cold front, there is a chance of snow flurries, particularly in northwestern Alabama on Monday morning. While significant accumulation is not expected, this adds to the dramatic shift in weather conditions, from record warmth to a potential freeze and flurries.
Rainfall Totals
Most of Alabama is expected to receive between 0.5 to 1.0 inches of rain late Sunday through Monday, with the highest rainfall amounts in North Alabama.
Timeline (Central Time)
- Northwest Alabama (Colbert, Hamilton, Marion, Winston, Fayette, Walker, Lamar, Pickens): 9 p.m. Sunday – 1 a.m. Monday
- Birmingham Metro (Jefferson County, Shelby County) & Tuscaloosa/Greenville/Perry/Dallas Counties: 11 p.m. Sunday – 3 a.m. Monday
- Cullman/Jackson/Attalla/Baileyton: 2 a.m. – 7 a.m. Monday
- Southeast Alabama (Clay, Coosa, Tallapoosa, Talladega, Randolph, Lee): 2 a.m. – 7 a.m. Monday
Preparing for the Storm
Residents are urged to prepare for potential power outages, secure outdoor objects, and have a plan in place in the event of a tornado warning. It is crucial to have a reliable way to receive weather alerts.
WVTM 13 First Warning Weather has been consistently recognized as the most accurate weather source in Central Alabama for 11 consecutive years.
Sources: MSN Weather, ChaseDay, WLWT, WLTX