Not since 1989 and its invasion of panama has the United States so ostentatiously wielded its “big stick” in the Caribbean.

In recent months Washington has amassed a fleet led by the aircraft carrier USS Gerald R Ford – billed by its navy as the world’s most lethal combat platform – in the sea that has been nicknamed “America’s Lake” because of US dominance over it.Along with 15,000 troops the flotilla has been deployed to target drug cartels as part of Operation Southern Spear.

As US president Donald Trump declared his country to be in a “non-international armed conflict” with traffickers, the US has carried out at least 21 strikes on boats in the Caribbean and eastern Pacific that its officials allege were smuggling drugs, in a campaign that has embroiled US defence secretary Pete Hegseth in accusations of possible war crimes.

The ultimate target of this supposed policing operation is Venezuela‘s dictator Nicolás Maduro,for years the principal antagonist of the US in the western hemisphere. After several previous failed attempts to eject the Chavista socialist from power, Washington once again has the former bus driver in its crosshairs.

Last month, it designated the Cartel de los Soles a foreign terrorist organisation identifying Maduro as the group’s leader.

Named after the sun-shaped insignia worn by Venezuelan military officials, the Cartel of the Suns refers to the various networks within the country’s security and military apparatus involved in drug trafficking.

Many observers contest the US claim the groups constitute a properly structured cartel or are headed by Maduro rather than just operate with his connivance. But the designation has ratcheted up the pressure on the Venezuelan regime which has been deeply implicated in criminality.

The USS Gerald R Ford in the Strait of Gibraltar before arriving in the Caribbean. Photograph: Mass Dialog Specialist Seaman Apprentice Alyssa Joy/US Navy via The New York Times

Trump has already confirmed he has authorised the CIA to conduct covert operations in Venezuela and that he was considering land-based strikes there. After reportedly offering Maduro safe passage to leave the country he told reporters, “if we can do things the easy way that’s fine, and if we have to do it the hard way, that’s fine too”.

This psychological pressure campaign against Maduro is just the latest sign that under Trump, Washington has adopted a new more muscular interpretation of its interests in the western hemisphere.

Is Trump starting a war with Venezuela?

For decades the region was largely ignored by US policymakers focused on the Middle East and the challenge posed in Asia by a resurgent China.But since”The former will be rewarded. As for the latter, Trump has already shown that he is more than willing to use america’s considerable leverage to protect our interests,” he warned.

Many have called this new posture a revival of the monroe Doctrine. One of the oldest pillars of US strategic thinking, this is named after president James Monroe who in 1823 declared the western hemisphere closed to further colonisation by European powers.

Since then the doctrine has been interpreted as an expression of US primacy in the region especially after president theodore Roosevelt – he of the “big stick” – said in 1904 the Monroe Doctrine imposed on the US the obligations of an “international police power” within its own hemisphere.

US secretary of state Marco Rubio has lamented that Washington’s years of neglect of the region had allowed problems such as the migrant and drug crises to fester. Photograph: Chip Somodevilla/ Getty Images

“It is too soon to say how the world is going to evolve. The post-second world War era is over but it is not certain what comes next. One possibility is the US agrees three spheres of influence with Russia and China and Europe becomes somewhat orphaned.But there is going to be a new configuration and clearly the US once again sees the Americas as its backyard, reviving the Monroe Doctrine,” says Rubens Barbosa, Brazil’s former ambassador in Washington.

But while the campaign against Maduro has been framed as a counter-narcotics policing operation,some see old Cold War antagonisms still at play.Central to this view is the role of Rubio, the administration’s acknowledged Latin American expert.

Trump’s Latin America Strategy: Targeting Drug-Producing States and a Rising hard Right

Donald Trump’s campaign is focusing on states involved in the drugs trade, raising concerns about interventionism and echoing the past Monroe Doctrine. This strategy is unfolding against a backdrop of a growing hard-right movement in Latin America, many of whom openly admire Trump and his “make America Great Again” (Maga) ideology.

Trump’s team has specifically targeted Venezuela, Colombia and Mexico, accusing them of allowing drugs to flow into the US. This rhetoric is resonating in a region grappling with drug-related violence and economic instability. The former president has repeatedly threatened military intervention in Mexico to tackle drug cartels, a stance that has drawn criticism but also some support.

Paraguay’s political landscape offers a revealing case study. Horacio Cartes, a businessman with alleged links to drug trafficking – identified as the head of a drug trafficking organisation in a 2010 US state department cable leaked by WikiLeaks – served as Paraguay’s president from 2013 to 2018 and remains the leader of the ruling Colorado party. The party has actively sought alignment with Trump’s Maga movement. Current president santiago Peña, a protégé of Cartes, has described a Trump re-election as “a dream come true”.

While trump’s campaign currently targets states run by leftists, the “Donroe Doctrine” – a term used to describe a more assertive US foreign policy in the region – isn’t universally opposed. A recent Bloomberg poll revealed that 53 per cent of Latin American respondents support US military intervention in Venezuela, compared to 35 per cent who oppose it. Advocates, like those at the America First Policy Institute, argue that US and Latin American interests align on issues like combating drug cartels.

Trump’s popularity across Latin America generally surpasses that of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro, who is widely blamed for the country’s economic collapse and the resulting refugee crisis – the largest in the region’s history, with eight million Venezuelans having fled.

Several hard-right candidates are now emulating Trump by linking the influx of Venezuelan refugees to rising crime rates, despite a lack of supporting evidence. Marta Lagos, director of Latinobarómetro, a regional research group, believes a successful effort by Trump to remove Maduro and restore democracy in Venezuela would substantially boost his popularity throughout the continent.

“Drug trafficking, organised crime and migration have taken over the whole region’s agenda and things like education or health now take second or third place,” Lagos explains. “It is not an ideological question. People blame Maduro for the eight million Venezuelans going around the continent looking for jobs. Venezuela is visible everywhere.”

The migration crisis is further fuelled by the expansion of organised crime, with drug profits being reinvested into activities like people smuggling, exacerbating regional instability.