NFL Free Agency: Avoiding Common Mistakes in Player Acquisition

The legal negotiation period for NFL free agency begins at noon ET on March 9, 2026, with players officially able to sign with novel teams starting at 4 p.m. ET on March 11, 2026. This period often triggers a frantic scramble among teams vying for the best available free agents, a situation that, according to Matthew Berry of NBC Sports, frequently leads to ill-advised decisions NBC Sports.

The Pitfalls of Free Agency

Hundreds of free agents will be available, all sharing a common characteristic: their previous team chose not to re-sign them. This decision could stem from various factors, including financial constraints, a player’s age or injury status, declining performance, or a mismatch with a new coaching staff’s scheme. Regardless of the reason, teams considering these players should exercise caution.

Eight Common Free Agency Mistakes

Here are eight common mistakes teams should avoid during the 2026 free agency period:

1. Overpaying for Pass Rushers Coming Off a Considerable Year

Historically, pass rushers who have a standout year in terms of sacks often experience a decline in performance the following season. Teams frequently make the mistake of paying free agent pass rushers based on their previous year’s performance, rather than projecting future potential. A review of the 16 highest-paid edge rushers in free agency revealed that only five improved their sack total with their new team, one maintained their level, and ten saw a decrease. Overall production from this group dropped from 84 to 63 sacks, a 25% decline. For the ten players who didn’t maintain their sack total, production fell from 56 to 22 sacks, a 60% drop.

Regression to the indicate is a common phenomenon in data analysis, where extreme values tend to move closer to the average over time. Ideally, teams should seek players they can acquire at a value based on their potential, rather than overpaying for past performance.

The Cowboys’ Approach to Edge Rushers

Last year, the Dallas Cowboys signed Dante Fowler (one-year, $6.0 million deal), Jadeveon Clowney (one-year, $3.5 million deal), and Payton Turner (one-year, $2.5 million deal) to moderate contracts. These players combined for 11.5 sacks at a combined annual cost of $12 million, equating to approximately $1 million per sack. Although this didn’t dramatically improve the defense, it represented a financially sound strategy.

While speculation surrounds potential high-profile signings like Maxx Crosby and Trey Hendrickson, the Cowboys are more likely to target players in Bill Barnwell’s “Capable starters” tier if they choose to spend significantly on an edge rusher.

Potential Free Agent Targets

Potential free agent edge rushers include Joey Bosa (Bills), K’Lavon Chaisson (Patriots), Khalil Mack (Chargers), Boye Mafe (Seahawks), Odafe Oweh (Chargers), Kwity Paye (Colts), and Jaelan Phillips (Eagles).

Free agency presents opportunities for teams to improve their rosters, but it as well carries significant risks. By avoiding common pitfalls and prioritizing value over past performance, teams can increase their chances of success in the competitive NFL landscape.