Strait of Hormuz Crisis: A Looming Threat to Global Food Security

As tensions escalate in the Middle East following joint military actions by the United States and Israel against Iran on February 28, 2026, the potential disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz poses a significant threat – not just to energy markets, but to global food security. While concerns about oil and gas prices are justified, a sustained disruption would trigger a fertilizer shock with far-reaching consequences.

The Strategic Importance of the Strait of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway linking the Gulf to the Indian Ocean, is a critical chokepoint for global energy trade. Situated between Iran and Oman, its narrowness – approximately 50 kilometers (30 miles) – and shallow waters make it vulnerable to being blocked [1]. Iran has repeatedly threatened to close the strait during times of crisis, most recently with a threat from a senior naval commander of the Revolutionary Guards in late January 2026 [1]. Despite these warnings, Tehran has not yet acted on them, though it briefly closed part of the strait for “safety” reasons during recent military drills [1].

Beyond Oil: The Fertilizer Connection

A disruption of traffic through the Strait of Hormuz would not only impact energy supplies but also severely affect the global fertilizer market. Modern agriculture relies heavily on nitrogen fertilizers, produced using natural gas through a process developed by Fritz Haber and Carl Bosch in the early 20th century. Approximately one-third of globally traded urea passes through the Strait of Hormuz [3]. The Persian Gulf region offers access to some of the world’s cheapest natural gas and hosts significant ammonia and urea production capacity in countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates [3].

Potential Impacts on Global Agriculture

A closure of the strait would immediately disrupt shipments of ammonia, urea, and LNG, potentially halting or significantly increasing the cost of these vital commodities. This would have a cascading effect on global agriculture, particularly during the northern hemisphere’s planting seasons. Farmers may face difficult choices, including paying higher prices, reducing fertilizer application rates, or altering crop mixes. Even modest reductions in nitrogen employ can lead to disproportionately large declines in crop yields, potentially resulting in millions of tonnes of lost crops [3].

Global Dependence and Vulnerability

Many countries are heavily reliant on fertilizer imports. India depends on LNG imports from the Persian Gulf to run its domestic urea plants, while Brazil relies on imported nitrogen and phosphate fertilizers for soybean and maize production. Even the United States, a major fertilizer producer, imports ammonia and urea to meet regional demand and reduce prices. In sub-Saharan Africa, where fertilizer use is already low, rising prices could further exacerbate food insecurity [3].

The Sulphur Factor and Energy Interdependence

The disruption extends beyond nitrogen. Sulphur, essential for plant growth, is largely a byproduct of oil and gas processing. Reduced energy shipments through Hormuz would also decrease sulphur output. Synthetic nitrogen production is tightly coupled to energy markets, as it is manufactured continuously from natural gas. Any disruption in gas supply or ammonia trade immediately constrains global nitrogen availability [3].

Long-Term Implications and Systemic Risks

Expanding fertilizer production capacity is a long-term undertaking, requiring years of financing and construction. A significant contraction in exports from the Persian Gulf region cannot be quickly offset. In the interim, prices will rise, trade flows will re-route, and planting decisions will be made under uncertainty. Food price inflation, historically linked to social unrest, could intensify. Central banks, focused on fuel-driven inflation, may underestimate the contribution of fertilizer scarcity to overall price increases. The delayed impact of fertilizer shortages – revealed in crop yields months later – may prove more destabilizing than immediate oil price shocks.

China’s Role and Potential Mitigation

Amidst the escalating crisis, China is reportedly in talks with Iran to ensure safe passage for crude oil and Qatari liquefied natural gas vessels through the Strait of Hormuz [2]. This move suggests a potential attempt to mitigate the impact of the crisis on energy and fertilizer supplies, particularly for China’s own agricultural needs.

The 21st century demands a recognition that the greatest threat may not be oil embargoes, but a fertilizer shock. While energy markets can absorb disruptions through reserves and substitution, the global food system has far thinner buffers. A prolonged disruption at Hormuz would not simply reprice crude; it would test the resilience of the industrial nitrogen cycle on which modern civilization depends. Oil powers cars. Nitrogen powers crops. If the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the most consequential price may not be Brent crude but the cost of feeding the world.