Indonesia Market Update: Auto Sales, Bank Dividends, and Commodity Trends – March 13, 2026

Indonesian markets showed mixed signals on March 13, 2026, with automotive sales demonstrating growth driven by shifting seasonality, although key banking institutions announced dividend plans and profit reports. Commodity markets also presented a dynamic landscape, influenced by geopolitical factors and production quotas. The USD/IDR exchange rate currently stands at 16,944.9881 as of 3:41:20 PM UTC .

Automotive Sales: A Shift in Seasonality

National car wholesalers recorded sales of 81,200 units in February 2026, representing a 12% year-over-year (YoY) increase and a 22% month-over-month (MoM) surge. This brought total wholesale car sales for the first two months of 2026 to 147,600 units, a 10% YoY increase, equating to 17.4% of Gaikindo’s 2026 target. Yet, analysts suggest this growth is largely attributable to a shift in the timing of purchases ahead of the Eid holiday, with more concentrated buying in February compared to the more spread-out pattern observed in February-March 2025.

Sales growth is primarily driven by brands outside of Astra International ($ASIA). During the first two months of 2026, non-ASII sales grew by 22% YoY, while ASII sales remained flat. Daihatsu, a subsidiary of ASII, saw an 18% YoY gain, offsetting an 8% YoY decline in sales for Toyota and Lexus. ASII’s market share decreased to 49.4% in the first two months of 2026, compared to 54.4% during the same period in 2025.

Japanese brands Mitsubishi and Suzuki recorded solid sales increases of 18% and 28% YoY, respectively. Chinese brands also showed varied performance, with BYD+Denza experiencing a substantial 195% YoY increase, while Wuling and Chery saw declines of 13% and 14% YoY. Other Chinese brands collectively demonstrated positive growth, with sales increasing by 158% YoY.

Motorcycle Sales Display Modest Growth

Domestic motorbike sales reached 587,000 units in February 2026, a 1% YoY increase and a 2% MoM increase. Total motorbike sales for the first two months of 2026 reached 1.17 million units, a 2% YoY increase, representing 17.4–18.2% of the Indonesian Motorcycle Industry Association (AISI)’s 2026 target.

Banking Sector: Dividends and Profits

Bank Central Asia (BBCA) announced plans to distribute dividends quarterly throughout the 2026 financial year, consisting of three interim dividends and one final dividend. Shareholders also approved the appointment of David Formula as a director and a share buyback plan with a fund allocation of up to IDR 5 trillion over 12 months.

Mandiri Bank (BMRI) reported a bank-only net profit of IDR 4.2 trillion in February 2026, a 17% YoY increase, but a 10% MoM decrease. The bank-only net profit for the first two months of 2026 reached IDR 8.9 trillion, a 17% YoY increase, representing 15.5% of the consensus consolidated estimate for 2026. This growth was driven by a 9% YoY increase in Pre-Provision Operating Profit and a 16% YoY increase in credit growth.

State Savings Bank (BBTN) reported a bank-only net profit of IDR 273 million in February 2026, an 82% YoY increase and a 19% MoM increase. The bank-only net profit for the first two months of 2026 reached IDR 503 million, a 100% YoY increase, representing 14% of the consensus consolidated estimates for 2026. This performance was supported by a 33% YoY increase in Pre-Provision Operating Profit (PPOP).

Commodity Updates

Bumi Resources (EARTH) announced that Wolfram Limited’s mine is expected to begin operations in the coming weeks, while Jubilee Metals Limited’s mine is slated to start production in the fourth quarter of 2026.

Telkom Indonesia (TLKM) received direction from Danantara to consolidate fiber optic assets belonging to other state-owned enterprises, including PT PLN. This mandate has shifted TLKM’s focus away from seeking strategic partners for PT Telkom Infrastruktur Indonesia (InfraNexia) in 2026, with the company now prioritizing strengthening InfraNexia’s fiber optic capabilities.

The government has approved production quotas for almost 300 million tons of coal in the 2026 RKAB. Bukit Asam is among the companies with approved RKABs, while PT Arutmin Indonesia, a subsidiary of Bumi Resources, is still awaiting approval. The Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources plans to set a national coal production quota of 600 million tons for 2026, down from the 790 million tons realized in 2025.

Oil Prices Surge Amidst Geopolitical Tensions

Brent oil prices rose 9.2% to $100.5/barrel on Thursday, March 12, 2026, and remained relatively stable in the $100–$101/barrel range on Friday, March 13, 2026. This increase was triggered by statements from Iran’s new supreme leader regarding the Strait of Hormuz, as well as reports of Iran potentially placing sea mines in the passage. The International Energy Agency (IEA) described the current supply disruption as the largest in the history of the global oil market. The US government has granted temporary permission for the purchase of Russian oil loaded onto ships before March 12, 2026, and may begin escorting tankers through the Strait of Hormuz by the end of the month.

Monetary Policy Outlook

Economists surveyed by Reuters expect Bank Indonesia to maintain the BI Rate at 4.75% at the Board of Governors Meeting on Tuesday, March 17, 2026, due to pressure on the rupiah exchange rate stemming from the conflict in the Middle East. Consensus estimates predict a 25 basis point cut to 4.5% in the second quarter of 2026, with the BI Rate expected to reach 4.25% by the end of 2026.