Paris Set for Runoff: Socialist Grégoire Faces Conservative Dati in Mayoral Election

Paris is heading for a runoff election for mayor after the first round of voting on March 15, 2026, saw Socialist candidate Emmanuel Grégoire emerge as the frontrunner, though trailing behind the threshold for an outright win. Grégoire secured 38.04% of the vote, while conservative Rachida Dati garnered 25.41%, setting the stage for a closely watched second round.

First Round Results and Key Players

The first round results revealed a fragmented political landscape. Beyond Grégoire and Dati, three other candidates surpassed the 10% threshold needed to advance: Sophia Chikirou of La France Insoumise (radical left) with 11.74%, Pierre-Yves Bournazel of Horizons (center-right) with 11.33%, and Sarah Knafo of Reconquête! (far-right) with 10.38%. Knafo has since withdrawn from the race, with Jordans Bardela, the leader of the National Rally, expressing support for Dati.

Challenges and Potential Alliances

Dati hopes to consolidate support from center-right voters and potentially capitalize on the withdrawal of Knafo to challenge the 25-year left-wing rule in Paris. However, Grégoire benefits from a potentially fractured opposition and the possibility of tactical voting from supporters of other left-leaning candidates. Notably, Grégoire has rejected any cooperation with the left-wing extremist party “Insubordinate France” (LFI).

Broader Trends in French Municipal Elections

The Paris mayoral race is one of several key cities heading for a second round of voting. In Le Havre, Edouard Philippe, representing the center-right party “Horizons,” is favored to retain his position as mayor. Marseille will see a runoff between current mayor Benoît Pajan (non-party leftist) and Frank Alisjo of the National Rally. In Toulon, the National Rally candidate is in a strong position to win, potentially securing the largest city yet for the national conservative party.

Shifting Alliances and Political Divisions

Traditionally, the left has formed alliances with centrist parties to prevent right-wing victories in French municipal elections. However, recent political divisions, stemming from an incident in Lyon in February involving the murder of a right-wing activist by left-wing extremists, have complicated these dynamics. While Grégoire and Pajan have refused to cooperate with LFI, other cities like Nantes and Brest have seen left-wing parties forming joint lists with LFI. In Toulouse, the left-wing candidate has allied with the LFI representative.

National Rally Gains Ground

The National Rally is demonstrating increasing strength in several cities, including Nîmes, where the race remains tight. In Saint-Denis, a suburb of Paris with a significant immigrant population, an LFI and communist alliance won in the first round, with Balli Bagajoko becoming the mayor. Right-wing candidates have also secured victories in Cannes, and Calais.