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US President Donald Trump and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan maintain a close diplomatic relationship driven by personal rapport and a broader strategic realignment in Washington, according to diplomatic briefings reported by the Jerusalem Center for Security and Foreign Affairs. American policymakers increasingly view Turkey as a regional actor capable of managing Middle Eastern affairs and engaging Arab states concerned about Iranian influence, shifting away from an exclusive reliance on Israel.
Regional Ambitions and Regional Rivalry
Ankara is actively seeking to consolidate its position as the preeminent power in the Sunni world and the dominant center of influence in the Levant, navigating a quiet competition with Iran, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates. Despite sharp public rhetoric from Erdoğan directed at Israel following the October 7, 2023, Hamas attacks, Turkish opposition remains largely confined to political and media spheres. According to regional reports, Turkey has not initiated military confrontations with Israel, has avoided challenging Israeli operations in Syria, and has restricted Hamas military activities within its borders.
Shifting Alliances in Syria and Lebanon
Washington sees potential for Turkey—acting either directly or through the Syrian government led by Ahmad al-Sharaa—to help stabilize Lebanon and prevent the resurgence of Hezbollah. Israeli officials warn that any expansion of Turkish influence in Lebanon and Syria will occur directly at the expense of Saudi Arabia, which the US also intends to keep engaged in the region. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu raised these concerns during a July 9 telephone call with Trump, specifically criticizing statements from Erdoğan that question Israel’s state legitimacy, according to the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office.
Military Hardware Disputes and F-35 Sales
Israel is actively lobbying the US Congress and administration to block potential American approval for Turkey to purchase F-35 stealth fighters and F-110 engines for its domestic Kaan fighter program. Netanyahu argues that such a sale would breach the US doctrine of Qualitative Military Edge (QME) regarding Israel. Israeli defense planners are preparing fallback measures to ensure that if the sale proceeds, Turkey receives a less advanced configuration than the fleet operated by the Israeli Air Force. Concurrently, Jerusalem is requesting an expanded US compensation package that includes precision munitions, advanced weaponry, security technology sharing, and formal limits on Turkish military entrenchment in Syria.
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