Argentina’s central bank, the Banco Central de la República Argentina (BCRA), projected a wholesale exchange rate averaging 1,512 pesos per dollar for August and 1,652 pesos for December according to its monthly Market Expectations Survey (REM). The survey compiles macroeconomic forecasts from financial institutions and economic consultants, providing a benchmark for private sector expectations on inflation, currency depreciation, and interest rates.
Wholesale Exchange Rate Projections and Market Consensus
According to the Banco Central de la República Argentina REM report, analysts revised their nominal exchange rate paths downward relative to earlier months as the government maintained its crawling peg framework. The survey places the expected monthly devaluation pace significantly below previous peaks, reflecting tighter monetary aggregates and ongoing intervention in financial markets. Financial institutions participating in the survey adjust their models monthly based on trade balance data, capital flows, and official monetary policy announcements.
Inflation and Interest Rate Forecasts in the REM Survey
Alongside currency estimates, the REM survey tracks projected changes in the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and benchmark interest rates. Participants factored in the pass-through effect of the projected exchange rate path on domestic goods and services. According to data published by the Banco Central de la República Argentina, respondents balance fiscal consolidation measures against sticky core inflation when setting their medium-term pricing models for corporate and retail portfolios.
Frequently Asked Questions
- What is the BCRA REM survey? The Market Expectations Survey (REM) is a monthly publication by the Banco Central de la República Argentina that aggregates forecasts from major banks, consulting firms, and analysts regarding key macroeconomic variables such as inflation, exchange rates, and economic growth.
- How do analysts calculate wholesale exchange rate projections? Participants use econometric models incorporating trade flows, monetary policy interest rates, central bank reserves, and historical crawling peg adjustments to project future nominal values for the mayorista exchange rate.
- Are REM projections legally binding? No, the survey reflects private sector expectations and consensus forecasts rather than fixed targets or regulatory mandates set by the central bank.
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