Coronavirus COVID-19 wastewater concentrations have doubled each month since June, pointing to a steady summer uptick in virus spread across the United States. According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and public health reporting, hospital admissions and emergency indicators are rising following months of low baseline activity, though health experts stress current numbers remain well below historical pandemic surges.
Hospitalization Trends and Regional Data
Nationally, COVID-19 hospitalizations have increased steadily since July, according to CDC data. For the week ending August 12, 2023, the agency recorded 12,613 new hospital admissions, up from 10,370 the previous week. An analysis conducted by NBC News indicates that the average daily hospitalization rate rose by nearly 25% over a two-week period, while intensive care unit admissions climbed over 16% and pediatric COVID cases increased by 12.8%. Maryland and North Carolina reported the highest hospitalization rates per 100,000 residents, while Indiana, Minnesota, and Connecticut experienced the sharpest percentage increases over a single week, according to the NBC News analysis.
Monitoring Methods: Wastewater and Testing
Because the federal public health emergency ended in May 2023, the CDC stopped tracking weekly case counts directly, and decreased community testing has made traditional case tallies less reliable. Dr. Natalie Azar, an NBC News medical contributor, stated in an August broadcast that authorities now rely on hospitalizations, ICU admissions, and wastewater data as proxies for community spread. Wastewater surveillance, which detects viral shedding in sewage regardless of individual symptoms, shows that over half of monitored samples across the country indicate a spike in viral activity, according to Azar.
Driving Variants: Eris and Pirola
The recent rise in infections is attributed to a combination of circulating omicron subvariants, most notably EG.5, also known as Eris. According to Dr. William Schaffner, professor of infectious diseases at Vanderbilt University Medical Center, speaking to TODAY.com, EG.5 has become the dominant strain nationwide. While EG.5 is a close relative of the omicron XBB family and is likely more transmissible, health officials report no evidence that it causes more severe disease or distinct symptoms compared to earlier variants. Additionally, a new subvariant designated BA.2.86, or Pirola, has been detected in the United States, drawing scrutiny from researchers due to its high number of genetic mutations.
Expert Outlook and Preparations
Despite the visible uptick in metrics, public health authorities emphasize that the situation does not mirror past catastrophic waves. Schaffner noted that the increase is an anecdotal and statistical uptick rather than a major surge resembling prior years. Health agencies anticipate that transmission will continue to rise into the autumn and winter months. An updated COVID-19 vaccine booster is expected to be released in September 2023 to help protect vulnerable populations against severe outcomes.
