The National Hurricane Center is monitoring three active Atlantic systems and four tropical waves as the basin approaches its historical peak on September 10. While forecasters track these disturbances, overall activity remains limited across the region.
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Outlook
According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s updated hurricane season outlook, a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season remains likely. NOAA forecasters indicate a 75% chance for below-normal activity, with a 20% chance of a near-normal season and a 5% chance of an above-normal season. The updated ranges project 7 to 13 named storms with winds of 39 mph or greater. Of those storms, 2 to 6 could become hurricanes with winds reaching 74 mph or greater, including 0 to 2 major hurricanes with winds of 111 mph or greater. These projections cover the entire season running from June 1 through November 30.
A typical Atlantic hurricane season produces 14 named storms, with seven becoming hurricanes and three reaching major hurricane status. To date, the 2026 season has produced two named tropical storms, Arthur and Bertha, and zero hurricanes, according to federal records. Both storms formed in the Gulf of America, with Tropical Storm Arthur bringing rainfall to Louisiana and spawned tornadoes along the Gulf coast, while Bertha made landfall in St. Bernard Parish, Louisiana.
Factors Influencing Storm Development
For the remainder of the season, tropical storm activity in the Atlantic basin is expected to face suppression from El Niño conditions that emerged in the equatorial Pacific in June. El Niño increases wind shear, which hinders tropical storms from forming or intensifying. Matt Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s National Weather Service, stated that when El Niño emerges, it typically becomes the dominant factor in total hurricane season activity. Near-average ocean temperatures and a neutral West African monsoon serve as less influential factors in the current outlook.
While El Niño suppresses Atlantic storm formation, it tends to enhance tropical activity in the Pacific. NOAA’s outlook for the Eastern Pacific hurricane season projects 15 to 22 named storms, representing an above-average season. The Central Pacific basin also anticipates an above-normal season with 5 to 13 named storms and tropical depressions.
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