Semaglutide Linked to Lower COVID-19 and Flu Severity, Study Finds

Ten-Million-Person Study Analyzes Claims Data

Researchers at the University of California, San Francisco, utilized data from the Optum Labs Data Warehouse to examine the medical records of 10,109,596 individuals with a mean age of 47 years, according to the study published in Scientific Reports. The dataset encompassed Medicare Advantage and commercial insurance enrollees who maintained continuous coverage from July 1, 2021, through June 30, 2022, with at least 365 days of prior enrollment history.

To identify exposure, the study team searched pharmacy claims for mentions of specific brand names including Ozempic, Wegovy, or Rybelsus, alongside the Current Procedural Terminology code J3590. The analysis also tracked the use of other pharmaceutical agents capable of influencing results, such as systemic corticosteroids, anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies, and inhibitors targeting tumor necrosis factor-alpha or interleukin-6.

Propensity Score Matching and Mortality Risk

The research team calculated incidence rates for COVID-19-related deaths per 1,000 person-years among both semaglutide users and non-users. By applying logistic regression models, investigators estimated propensity scores that accounted for patient demographics, underlying health comorbidities, immunosuppressive drug use, prior viral infections, and COVID-19 vaccination status. They then applied inverse probability treatment weighting and used Cox regression analysis stratified by birth year to determine hazard ratios.

The primary finding revealed that semaglutide exposure was tied to a 49% reduction in the adjusted hazard of COVID-19-associated mortality. Investigators defined these deaths using discharge-status codes paired with the International Classification of Diseases, Tenth Revision code U07.1 recorded within 30 days prior to death. The findings align with secondary analyses observed in the Semaglutide Effects on Cardiovascular Outcomes in People with Overweight or Obesity trial, known as the SELECT trial.

Evaluating Metabolic Treatments and Viral Severity

Clinical interest in glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists stems from their established mechanisms in controlling blood glucose levels and managing body weight for individuals diagnosed with type 2 diabetes, obesity, or overweight status. Because these underlying metabolic conditions traditionally increase susceptibility to severe COVID-19 and related complications and death, researchers sought to determine whether the therapeutics offer clinical benefits beyond glucose regulation and weight management.

The study authors note that the design identified a correlation across an insured cohort rather than tracking direct changes in blood sugar or weight loss outcomes, or focusing exclusively on patients with documented SARS-CoV-2 infections. Consequently, researchers emphasize that these findings point to a striking mortality association that requires confirmation through prospective clinical trials.