Texas leads the nation with “very high” wastewater COVID-19 levels, according to data released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for the week ending August 22. The state stands as the only state in the country to reach that specific threshold during the late-summer swell, driven by a combination of seasonal indoor gatherings and waning immunity.
Wastewater Metrics Surge Across Texas
According to data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Texas wastewater readings surged well beyond the national average starting in July. The state’s viral activity level hovered slightly above the U.S. average through most of June before cresting twice in the summer. It ultimately reached the “very high” threshold by late August, marking a sharp contrast to broader national trends where 47 states are currently tracking growing infections.
Wastewater data serves as an early indicator for public health officials, signaling rising illness well before traditional metrics such as positive test rates, emergency room visits, and deaths register the shift. Dr. Philip Huang, director of Dallas County Health and Human Services, noted that this end-of-summer COVID swell aligns with patterns observed in previous years. Based on Dallas County-specific data, Huang stated that the current wave appears to be subsiding for now, describing the trajectory as a predictable seasonal pattern similar to influenza.
Contributing Factors: Indoor Crowding and Waning Immunity
Public health officials point to specific environmental and behavioral factors fueling the Texas spike. Dr. Philip Huang explained that persistent extreme heat across Southern states drives residents indoors into air-conditioned spaces, increasing close-contact transmission. At the same time, waning population immunity plays a critical role in the transmission dynamics.
Data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention shows that Texas COVID-19 vaccination rates plunged among both adults and children between 2025 and 2026. Coverage in the state consistently tracks below national figures. In February 2026, fewer than 12% of Texas adults were vaccinated, compared to nearly 18% nationwide. Child vaccination rates dropped even lower, with under 6% of children older than 6 months up to date on their COVID-19 vaccinations in 2026, compared to nearly 9% nationwide.
Regional Positivity Rates and Circulating Variants
Texas falls under the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Region 6, which also encompasses Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, and New Mexico. According to federal data, this multi-state region reported a test positivity rate of 11.8 percent for the week ending August 9, comfortably outpacing the national average of nearly 9 percent.
Health officials are actively tracking evolving viral strains as students return to classrooms. Nationwide genomic surveillance indicates that the variant NB.1.8.1 has rapidly become dominant, accounting for more than four out of every ten cases. It is followed by the LP.8.1 strain and the newer XFG variant, a recombinant strain of earlier lineages that accounted for 14 percent of all U.S. cases reported through late June. Health agencies emphasize that current strains do not produce unique symptoms, with patients continuing to report standard presentations including fever, chills, cough, sore throat, fatigue, and body aches.
Vaccine Availability and Guidance
The Food and Drug Administration approved updated 2026-27 COVID-19 vaccines from Pfizer, Moderna and Novavax in late August, with distribution reaching pharmacies by mid-September. Dr. Philip Huang recommends that older adults, children, and individuals with chronic illnesses receive the updated vaccine as the primary defense against infection and severe health complications, noting that hospitalizations and severe illness persist across the state.
Federal vaccine guidance has experienced shifts following announcements from Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and his appointees, who adjusted federal recommendations to focus vaccination requirements primarily on adults 65 and older and individuals with existing health conditions. This policy shift departed from broader prior recommendations that included children, pregnant individuals, and healthy adults seeking supplementary protection. In response, leading professional organizations—including the American Medical Association, the American Academy of Pediatrics, and the American College of Obstetricians and Gynecologists—continue to publish independent guidelines aligned with World Health Organization advice, recommending vaccination for older adults, immunocompromised individuals, pregnant or breastfeeding people, long-term care residents, and those seeking to minimize their risk of severe illness or long COVID.
Related reading