Climate change is actively making airplane turbulence significantly worse, according to atmospheric research published by the University of Reading. A warmer atmosphere is reshaping high-altitude jet streams, leading to a documented increase in severe clear-air turbulence across major global flight corridors since 1980.
The Data Behind Increasing Clear-Air Turbulence
Recent peer-reviewed studies have put concrete numbers on pilot reports of bumpier flights. According to atmospheric data analyzed by a team at the University of Reading and published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, moderate-to-severe clear-air turbulence increased by 60% to 155% between 1980 and 2021 across North Africa, East Asia, the Middle East, the North Atlantic, and the North Pacific. Lead researcher Mohamed Foudad and his colleagues found that East Asia experiences the highest rates globally, with aircraft encountering clear-air turbulence roughly 7.5% of the time, compared to about 1% across the Northern Hemisphere overall.
Further modeling by University of Reading PhD researcher Joana Medeiros and Professor Paul Williams projects that wind shear at cruising altitudes will increase by 16% to 27% by the year 2100. Simultaneously, atmospheric stability is projected to drop by 10% to 20%, compounding the conditions that create rougher air for commercial flights.
Why a Warmer Atmosphere Drives Wind Shear
Clear-air turbulence forms when air masses moving at different speeds collide near the edges of jet streams at typical cruising altitudes around 35,000 feet. Unlike thunderstorms, this type of turbulence features no clouds, no radar signature, and no visual warning, making it difficult for flight crews to detect in advance.
According to Joana Medeiros, climate change intensifies the temperature difference between the equator and the poles at jet-stream altitude. This sharpening temperature gradient drives wind shear. “Increased wind shear and reduced stability work together to create favourable conditions for clear-air turbulence, the invisible, sudden jolts that cannot be seen on radar,” Medeiros stated.
Financial and Safety Impacts on Commercial Aviation
Turbulence represents a substantial financial burden for commercial carriers. According to industry estimates cited by AeroXplorer, turbulence-related delays, diversions, aircraft inspections, and injuries cost U.S. airlines between $150 million and $500 million annually.
While structural failures on modern commercial aircraft remain essentially unheard of because airliners are certified to withstand loads roughly 1.5× the worst turbulence ever recorded, injuries to passengers and crew persist. According to a National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) safety study covering 2009 to 2018, U.S. Part 121 air carriers experienced 111 turbulence accidents. Flight attendants accounted for 79% of seriously injured occupants because cabin duties often require staff to move about the cabin unbelted.
High-profile incidents underscore the ongoing operational risks. On May 21, 2024, Singapore Airlines flight SQ321, a Boeing 777 traveling from London to Singapore, dropped roughly 54 meters in five seconds over Myanmar, resulting in one fatality and 144 injuries. More recently, in March 2025, a United flight from San Francisco to Singapore encountered severe turbulence that injured five people, including a flight attendant.
Airlines Adapt to Changing Atmospheric Conditions
In response to rising turbulence frequencies, commercial carriers are adjusting operations. Korean Air discontinued serving instant noodles in 2024 due to burn risks during turbulence, noting that incidents on its flights doubled between 2009 and 2024.
Professor Paul Williams noted that airlines will need to adopt new technologies to spot turbulence proactively. Several carriers have already expanded real-time turbulence reporting systems, allowing pilots to share atmospheric data with other aircraft in the same airspace faster than traditional forecasting allows. Additionally, Professor Williams noted that pilots may need to keep seatbelt signs on longer and suspend cabin service more often during flights.