Ohio State remains the betting favorite to win the national championship despite a late-game loss to Texas during the college football season, according to odds tracked by major sportsbooks. Arch Manning and No. 4 Texas secured a 24-23 victory over No. 1 Ohio State, overcoming a fourth-quarter deficit with a 20-point rally. Despite the defeat, oddsmakers shortened the Buckeyes’ title odds, reflecting how modern oddsmakers and analysts view the expanded 12-team playoff format.
How College Football Betting Markets Responded to the Texas Upset
Following the one-point loss in front of 100,119 opposing fans, Ohio State’s championship odds at DraftKings moved from +550 to +530, according to DraftKings Director of Sports Operations Johnny Avello. The loss dropped the Buckeyes to No. 6 in the AP Top 25 poll, while Texas climbed to the No. 1 ranking with title odds priced at +650.
According to Avello, regular-season losses carry a different weight in the expanded College Football Playoff era. He noted to the New York Post that teams can drop a game or two and still mount a championship run, pointing to Ohio State’s 2024 title campaign where the team recovered from two regular-season losses—a 32-31 defeat to Oregon on Oct. 12 and a 13-0 shutout against Michigan on Nov. 30—to win the national crown.
Analyzing the Game Script and Path Forward
BetMGM public relations manager John Ewing told the New York Post that game context influenced the market stability. Ohio State controlled large portions of the matchup and outgained the Longhorns in total yardage by 36 yards despite the hostile road environment.
“While Ohio State did blow a lead, they were in control for most of that game in a hostile road environment,” Ewing said. Because the contest was not a Big Ten loss, the defeat did not damage Ohio State’s standing within the Big Ten conference race or eliminate their clear path to the postseason bracket.
Both programs return to action with contrasting schedules. Texas prepares to face UTSA, while Ohio State returns home to face Illinois at noon.
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