Bitcoin trades near etwa 84.000 USD, reaching its highest level since January 2026, as market participants monitor a critical weekly price close that could confirm a sustained breakout toward 100,000 USD or expose the move as a temporary headfake. According to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, the weekly candle finish holds the key to determining whether the cryptocurrency has genuinely entered a new bull market following a break above May 2026 resistance levels.
The Weekly Candle Test at etwa 82.500 USD
Bitcoin climbed past its May 2026 high this week, reaching approximately etwa 84.000 USD. Benjamin Cowen notes that a weekly close above the May peak of roughly etwa 82.500 USD would validate the breakout for traders betting on continued upward momentum. Conversely, a drop below that threshold would suggest the advance was merely a brief spike before returning to the previous range. Because weekly closes filter out short-term volatility and intraday price extremes, market participants treat them as stronger directional signals than individual session swings.
Adding complexity to the technical setup, macroeconomic pressures continue to challenge risk assets. The yield on 10-year US Treasury bonds surged past 5% on Wednesday, marking its highest level in 19 years, while September PMI data surpassed economist expectations. Higher bond yields typically diminish the relative appeal of volatile assets like Bitcoin. Cowen emphasizes caution amid these competing forces, stating that traders monitoring breakout strategies should watch the weekly candle closely for signs of a failed return to the range as borrowing costs climb.
Differing Perspectives on Market Volatility
Recent market behavior has forced analysts to recalibrate previous cycle assumptions. Cowen acknowledged that his earlier projection of an October cycle low no longer aligns with actual price action, prompting a shift toward identifying specific structural pivot points rather than making fixed directional predictions. Fellow analyst Michaël van de Poppe shares a similarly cautious outlook, suggesting that while the most recent correction might be complete, a retracement down to 81,000 USD remains entirely possible.
| Analyst | Key Price Level | Outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Benjamin Cowen | etwa 82.500 USD (Weekly Close) | Needs to hold above this threshold to confirm a true bull market breakout. |
| Michaël van de Poppe | 81,000 USD | Correction may be ending, but a pullback to this support level is still possible. |
As the week concludes, traders look to the official candle close to determine whether Bitcoin can maintain its footing above 82.000 USD or if macroeconomic headwinds will force a deeper consolidation phase.
Worth a look