Prediction markets and sports prediction apps face heightened scrutiny over potential insider trading risks and a lack of regulatory guardrails, drawing sharp contrasts with traditional sports betting operators. Platforms like Novig, Polymarket, and Kalshi present themselves in the US as forms of financial exchanges rather than betting services to bypass online gambling restrictions in some US states, such as California, allowing users to trade contracts based on whether or not something will happen.
The Sydney Sweeney Novig Campaign and Its Critics
Novig launched a national brand campaign on September 9, 2026, titled “Just Sports,” featuring Sydney Sweeney as a strategic partner and equity holder. The 58-second commercial features Sweeney using sports equipment instead of clothing, generating close to 39 million views within five days and sparking widespread public debate.
The marketing initiative faced backlash from prominent sportswomen—among them water polo player Tilly Kearns, former gymnast Gracie Kramer, British sprinter Amy Hunt, Olympic cycling champion Sophie Capewell, and Olympic champion swimmer Ariarne Titmus—who argued that the promotion inappropriately sexualized female athletes. Critics argue the imagery detracts from the discipline, physical work, and performance achievements of female athletes.
Defenders of the campaign note that Sweeney is an actor rather than an athlete, and CEO and co-founder Jacob Fortinsky stated that Sweeney helped bring the message to life, which focuses exclusively on sports markets with a 21-plus age minimum.
Insider Trading Risks and Regulatory Gaps
While marketing debates focus on the advertising imagery, industry observers point to deeper structural concerns regarding prediction markets. Unlike conventional sportsbooks such as Paddy Power or Boyle Sports—which must comply with regulators and protect their brands from market manipulation—prediction markets prioritize volume.
This operational model creates vulnerabilities for insider trading. For instance, a team physiotherapist with non-public injury information could suggest a market regarding a player’s starting status, potentially generating profit before news reaches the public. Conventional betting companies actively work to reduce such manipulation to protect their bottom line and brand reputations.
High-Profile Celebrity Partnerships
Prediction markets have secured major celebrity endorsements to drive user acquisition among younger demographics, despite research from the British Gambling Commission indicating that young people aged 11 to 17 are influenced by celebrity gambling endorsements.
- LeBron James: Partnered with Polymarket in a deal paying him $15 million this season—surpassing his $4 million salary with the Philadelphia 76ers. Approximately $250 million was wagered on prediction markets regarding his team signing prior to the announcement.
- Giannis Antetokounmpo: Serves as a shareholder in Kalshi, though he has been prohibited from trading on NBA markets because of the risk of insider trading.
- Luka Modric: Signed on to be a global ambassador for Kalshi merely two days ahead of his initial World Cup fixture.
- Bryson DeChambeau and Timothée Chalamet: Both have signed deals or invested in Kalshi.
These partnerships lend credibility to platforms that operate outside the traditional guardrails of regulated sports gambling, leaving regulators and consumer advocates questioning the long-term oversight of prediction exchanges.
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