US President Donald Trump hosted a gathering of Latin American leaders in New York on Tuesday, praising a regional shift toward conservative administrations while outlining strategic ambitions for energy, critical minerals, and trade routes. Speaking at a meeting of The Shield of the Americas, Trump addressed leaders from across the hemisphere during the United Nations General Assembly, asserting that his administration backed several of the figures who secured recent electoral victories.
The Regional Shift and Its Drivers
Approximately ten nations in Latin America are currently led by radical-right or conservative presidents, including Argentina, Chile, Colombia, Ecuador, El Salvador, and Peru, according to Kees Konings, a professor of Brazil studies cited by Nieuwsuur. While Trump claims direct credit for these political outcomes, Latin America expert Francisco Monaldi of Rice University argues that the movement stems primarily from domestic conditions within each country rather than foreign influence.
Monaldi points to widespread anti-government sentiment fueled by years of modest economic growth and high crime rates as the core drivers behind voter demand for stronger security measures. He notes that voters are largely trying to survive economic and social pressures rather than actively aligning with Washington, adding that overt cooperation with the US administration could actually deter voters from supporting right-leaning candidates.
Venezuela and Argentina: Diplomatic Realities
In Venezuela, political dynamics have shifted following the January detention of former socialist dictator Nicolás Maduro by the US. Vice President Delcy Rodríguez has since assumed leadership of the country and recently met Trump at the UN to discuss strengthening relations, a conversation Rodríguez termed historic. However, Monaldi contends that Caracas is primarily trying to buy time while Trump remains in office, and notes that a US-desired increase in Venezuelan oil production would take years to materialize.
Similarly, relations with Argentina’s right-populist president, Javier Milei, reveal underlying policy contradictions. Despite Milei being viewed as one of Trump’s most loyal allies, Monaldi highlights that their policy positions diverge significantly on trade, with Trump favoring import tariffs while Milei remains a staunch proponent of free trade.
The Crucial Test of Brazilian Elections
The upcoming October 4 presidential election in Brazil represents a major test for the regional balance of power. Flavio Bolsonaro, son of convicted radical-right former president Jair Bolsonaro, is running against incumbent leftist president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, with recent polls indicating a tight race. Konings emphasizes that the Brazilian election will be decisive for the political weight of the right in South America, noting that the Bolsonaro family is fully prepared to align with Washington.
During the UN General Assembly, President Lula pushed back against external influence, declaring that Brazil belongs to no one’s backyard—a reference to the ‘Donroe-doctrine’. Monaldi observes that if Bolsonaro wins the election, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum would remain the only regional leader opposing Trump’s agenda. Even among governments seeking diplomatic engagement, national interests persist; China remains a vital economic partner for several major South American nations, serving as the primary destination for Brazilian exports in 2024.
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