The United States military is preparing to withdraw from its final base in Iraq by Wednesday, September 30, 2026, ending a continuous presence that spanned more than two decades. The departure marks the conclusion of a military footprint established during the 2003 invasion to oust Saddam Hussein and later revived in 2014 to combat the Islamic State.
Strategic Shifts and Regional Reactions
The withdrawal agreement, finalized in 2024 under the administration of President Joe Biden and executed by the administration of Donald Trump, is drawing mixed regional reactions. Iran and its regional allies are celebrating the exit as a major victory for the “axis of resistance.” Amir Hayat Moqaddam, deputy chairman of the National Security Commission in the Iranian parliament, stated that Tehran welcomes the withdrawal and expects enduring security to follow.
Iraqi security experts note that the departure removes a key military counterbalance to Iranian influence in the country. Jasim al-Bahadli, an Iraqi security analyst, explained that Iran gains a strategic advantage because the coalition’s presence previously acted as a check on Tehran’s reach. Abu Mojtaba al-Yasiri, a commander of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq, described the date as the turning of a dark page in Iraqi history, asserting that national security relies on local resistance rather than foreign forces.
Security Concerns Over Potential Power Vacuums
While the exit enjoys broad popularity among the Iraqi public, security officials and Sunni leaders warn of the risks of a premature vacuum. Abdulrahman al-Zobaie, a Sunni tribal figure in Fallujah, acknowledged the widespread desire for full sovereignty but expressed concern that the coalition’s departure could leave dangerous security gaps.
Those fears center on the potential resurgence of the Islamic State. Kurdish commander Sirwan Barzani reported observing increased activity among ISIS sleeper cells after public announcements of the coalition’s departure schedule, noting that the loss of American intelligence, logistics, and drone support boosts insurgent morale. Col. Khalid al-Bayati, a senior security official in Kirkuk, added that security forces are tracking suspected ISIS cells preparing suicide attacks to demonstrate capability as foreign troops leave.
During the recent escalation in the conflict involving Iran, 7 of the 18 U.S. service members killed were stationed in Iraq, with the final casualty recorded in July.
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