The final American military presence in Iraq ended on September 30, when US troops departed an air base in the Erbil region after a twelve-year deployment.
Militia Disarmament Deadlines and Political Friction
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi has established a June 2027 deadline for armed factions to surrender their weapons, beginning with an initial 90-day truce. While several groups agreed to disarm, powerful factions including Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba rejected the directive. These organizations maintain official integration within the Iraqi state via the Popular Mobilisation Forces, a government-funded umbrella organization for Shia militias, which prevents Baghdad from enforcing a direct military order against them.
Kataib Hezbollah characterized the US troop withdrawal as “the beginning of full sovereignty” while issuing a veiled warning to the Iraqi administration. Following the departure of American forces, the faction threatened to destabilize al-Zaidi’s government and target hostile aircraft operating within Iraqi airspace.
Cross-Border Drone Attacks and Regional Escalation
Iraq has increasingly functioned as a launchpad for regional attacks targeting Gulf infrastructure. In September, Iraqi security forces intercepted and seized a drone launcher in Maysan province near the Iranian border. Investigators tied the equipment to strikes against Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline, the kingdom’s primary petroleum transit corridor bypassing the Strait of Hormuz. The strikes knocked the pipeline out of service for eleven days.
Additional drone incidents occurred throughout the year. Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates reported multiple aerial attacks originating from Iraqi territory. In late July, more than thirty drones struck Saudi oil infrastructure over a 72-hour period. In response, United States and Saudi forces executed joint airstrikes against Popular Mobilisation Forces bases, resulting in the deaths of at least 20 militia members and four Iranian Revolutionary Guard officers.
Economic Strains and US Financial Influence
The broader regional conflict has severely impacted Iraq’s domestic economy. With navigation through the Strait of Hormuz largely restricted, Iraqi oil exports dropped from 3.5 million barrels per day to approximately 2.5 million barrels per day, generating roughly $60 billion in lost revenue. Petroleum exports finance approximately 90% of Iraq’s federal budget.
Washington retains substantial power through financial controls rather than direct military presence. Iraqi oil revenues are deposited into an account at the New York Federal Reserve. US officials have used restrictions on these dollar flows to pressure Baghdad into taking action against domestic militias. However, analysts note this strategy carries risks of destabilizing the central government.
US troop withdrawal and Iraqi oil export declines
When did US troops leave Iraq?
The last American troops departed an air base in the Erbil region on September 30, concluding a twelve-year military presence under a timetable agreed upon in 2024.
Which militias refused to disarm?
Kataib Hezbollah and Harakat al-Nujaba rejected Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s directive to surrender their weapons by June 2027.
How were Iraqi oil exports affected by the conflict?
Exports declined from 3.5 million barrels per day to about 2.5 million barrels per day due to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, costing the nation approximately $60 billion in lost revenue.
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