New applications for U.S. unemployment benefits fell to a seasonally adjusted 197,000 for the week ended September 26, hovering near 57-year lows and signaling persistent labor market resilience, according to the Department of Labor reported by Reuters.
Weekly Jobless Claims Drift Near 57-Year Lows
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits slipped by 1,000 during the final week of September, coming in slightly below the 200,000 consensus forecast from economists polled by Reuters. This marks three consecutive weeks of claims holding below the 200,000 threshold, matching levels last observed in 1969. The four-week moving average dropped from a revised 202,500 to 200,000. Meanwhile, continuing claims—representing people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid—dropped 11,000 to 1.701 million for the week ended September 19, marking the lowest level recorded since April 2023.
Kitco noted that spot gold traded down 0.50% at $4,264.40 an ounce as strong labor data pushed the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield to a 20-year high of 5.11%. Persistent inflation pressures and resilient employment figures continue to drive bond yields higher, leaving precious metals under pressure.
Planned Layoffs Drop as Employers Adopt Wait-and-See Approach
Despite low layoffs, companies showed little urgency to expand their workforces.
Market Reactions to Resilient Labor and Fed Policy
Financial markets priced in a roughly 37.1% chance of further monetary policy tightening at the Federal Reserve’s October 27–28 meeting, down from 68.6% the prior week, according to CME’s FedWatch tool. Cooler-than-expected inflation readings in July and August reduced expectations for an immediate follow-up hike.
State-level details showed that California led the nation in initial claims declines for the week ended September 12, followed by Texas, New York, Michigan, and New Jersey. Conversely, Kentucky reported the largest increase, driven by manufacturing industry layoffs. Nationally, the insured unemployment rate held steady at 1.1%.
Frequently Asked Questions About the September Labor Data
- How do weekly jobless claims impact the upcoming nonfarm payrolls report?
- Weekly claims data have no direct bearing on the monthly employment report because they fall outside the survey period. Economists surveyed by Reuters forecast nonfarm payrolls increased by 90,000 jobs in September, with the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.1%.
- Why are consumer perceptions of the job market diverging from low layoff numbers?
- A Conference Board survey showed the share of consumers viewing jobs as plentiful dropped in September to its lowest level since February 2021, while those calling jobs hard to get reached a 5-1/2-year high.
The Federal Open Market Committee is scheduled to meet next on October 27–28 to evaluate monetary policy and borrowing costs.
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