American Express Shares Plummet Amid AI Recession Fears and Hawkish Fed Stance

Shares of American Express (AXP) experienced a significant drop on Monday, February 23, 2026, falling 7.33% to close at $320.82. The decline, unusual for the typically stable financial giant, was triggered by a confluence of concerns: growing anxieties over potential economic disruption from artificial intelligence and a more cautious outlook on interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve.

AI Disruption Concerns Fuel Market Uncertainty

Over the weekend, a widely followed financial research account on X (formerly Twitter), known as “Citrini” (with over 150,000 followers), published a scenario forecasting a potential recession by mid-2028. The analysis highlighted the risk of widespread unemployment – exceeding 10% – as AI technologies automate tasks currently performed by white-collar workers. The report suggests that such a recession would likely occur due to the impact on consumer spending, which accounts for 70% of U.S. Gross domestic product, despite potential productivity gains from AI.

Federal Reserve Signals Continued Caution on Rate Cuts

Adding to the market’s unease, Federal Reserve Governor Chris Waller indicated that a strong February jobs report could justify maintaining current interest rates. This statement reversed previous expectations of potential rate cuts following weaker jobs growth at the conclude of last year. Lower interest rates generally benefit financial stocks by reducing borrowing costs and stimulating economic activity.

American Express Specifically Impacted

American Express, with a market capitalization of $221 billion, was particularly affected by the downturn. The company’s performance is closely tied to consumer spending and credit activity, making it vulnerable to recessionary pressures. The stock traded in a range of $317.18 to $345.83 on February 23, with a volume of 275,000 shares, below its average volume of 2.9 million.

Market Reaction and Expert Commentary

Despite the negative sentiment, some analysts cautioned against panic selling. They pointed to potential government or Federal Reserve interventions to mitigate the impact of AI-driven job losses. Others expressed skepticism about the speed and extent of AI’s disruptive potential, citing existing limitations in areas like memory, power, and chip fabrication. However, investors generally appeared to be “de-risking” their portfolios, particularly given historically high stock valuations.

Looking Ahead

The potential impact of AI on the economy remains a key area of focus for investors. While the Citrini report sparked immediate concern, ongoing monitoring of actual AI implementation and its effects on employment will be crucial. Investors are advised to base their decisions on evidence rather than speculation and to consider their individual risk tolerance.

Key Data Points (February 23, 2026):

• Market Cap: $221 Billion
• Current Price: $320.82
• Day’s Range: $317.18 – $345.83
• 52-Week Range: $220.43 – $387.49
• Gross Margin: 60.65%
• Dividend Yield: 1.02%