Andy Burnham’s EU Rejoin Plan Backed by Megapoll Despite Cabinet Caution

Nearly half of all voters now support rejoining the European Union, according to a massive new survey that puts the UK government in a precarious position. The Messina Group (TMG) megapoll found that 49% of respondents favor re-entry, dwarfing the 28.5% who remain opposed, according to The Guardian.

The Seven-Point Electoral Gamble

The numbers suggest a significant political prize for the Prime Minister. TMG, which surveyed 11,461 people between September 12 and 24, indicates that renegotiating the UK’s relationship with the EU could swell Labour’s vote share by as much as seven percentage points. There is a catch: this boost depends on the Prime Minister offering a fresh referendum and explicitly campaigning for the UK to return to the bloc.

But the public is split on how to get there. Nearly one-third of those polled insist an in-out referendum is a necessary prerequisite. One in six believe a general election mandate would be enough. An equal proportion think Parliament should simply decide the matter without a public vote.

Cabinet Fears of a Reform Surge

Inside the Labour cabinet, the mood is one of caution. Ministers including Andy Burnham, Louise Haigh, John Healey, and Ed Miliband represent constituencies that voted to leave in 2016. According to The Guardian, these figures have previously committed to respecting that result and fear that even debating a reversal could alienate their voters and hand a boost to Reform.

The pushback is already public. Deputy leader Lucy Powell argued that while defense and security cooperation could be improved, moving beyond the government’s current “reset” plans is neither “possible nor desirable.” Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood was more blunt, warning that rejoining is not a “straightforward thing” and that the associated costs could be unacceptable.

Farage and the Door to Reform

Nigel Farage sees a political opening. Speaking on local political shifts in areas like Doncaster, Farage maintained that his party’s values provide a strong alternative for voters. Reform has dealt with its own internal friction, with party leaders in Doncaster facing scrutiny over comments regarding the housing crisis. Farage dismissed these local issues as not unique to his party, keeping the focus on government performance and the legacy of Brexit.

The Hierarchy of EU Models

Beyond a total return to the EU, the TMG survey tested seven different relationship models. The “rejoin” option leads, but it is followed closely by maintaining the current relationship while removing as many trade barriers as possible (48.2%). A customs union follows at 47.1%, while joining the single market (45.1%) and associate membership (45%) also hold significant support.

The government remains internally fractured over these paths. One cabinet minister admitted to The Guardian that “Brexit clearly hasn’t worked” and that original promises remain unfulfilled, yet warned the government must avoid “restoking division.” Another source noted that the “Made in Europe” agenda requires a long-term dialogue with the EU, regardless of the political sensitivity.