Argentina’s monthly inflation rate reached 2.1% in July, marking a slight increase from June and breaking a three-month slowdown in inflation, according to data published on Thursday by the national statistics agency INDEC. The reading came in just above analyst expectations of 2% and outpaced the 1.9% rate recorded in the previous month, though it matches the 2.1% figure registered in May 2026.
Inflation Breakdown and Sector Drivers
Prices rose 33.8% over the 12 months through July, climbing from the 33.5% annual rate recorded in June, according to INDEC figures. Cumulative inflation for 2026 stands at 19.3%. Core inflation ticked up to 1.8% in July from 1.6% in June, though it remains the lowest reading for that metric since July last year, excluding the June figure. Seasonal prices jumped 4.5%, driven higher by vegetables, tour packages, and accommodation services. Regulated prices increased 2.1%, fueled by higher public transportation fares, private health insurance costs, and electricity prices.
Recreation and culture experienced the largest monthly price increase at 5%, driven by expensive holiday packages and cultural services during Argentina’s winter holidays. Restaurants and hotels recorded the second-largest increase at 2.8%. Conversely, clothing and footwear prices fell by 1.3%. According to the Buenos Aires Herald, this marks the first time the category has recorded an actual price decline since August 2025, driven by increased imports and reduced consumer purchasing power.
Analyst Perspectives on Disinflation
Market analysts note that the figures confirm a gradual and uneven disinflation path rather than a derailed trend. Eric Ritondale, Chief Economist at brokerage firm Puente, stated that core inflation falling below the 2% threshold provides a positive signal validating an underlying slowdown. Ritondale expects the disinflation process to continue, though he warned that monthly volatility will persist due to seasonal categories and relative price adjustments. Santiago Casas, Chief Economist at consulting firm EcoAnalytics, shared that assessment, noting that July highlights how seasonality continues to shape monthly price dynamics. Sergio González, Head of Asset Management at brokerage firm Cohen Aliados Financieros, observed that market reaction to the data was limited because the figures matched expectations, leaving annual inflation projections hovering around 30% for the end of the year.
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