Before Christmas in 2032, we are probably in for an extraordinary celestial show. Asteroid 2024 YR4, which was discovered by the ATLAS system on December 27, 2024, has a significant chance of colliding with our Moon. Although the probability of this collision is a seemingly low 4.3%, on a cosmic scale this is a number that worries astronomers. If the December 22nd impact actually occurs, we will see from Earth with the naked eye a flash with a brightness comparable to Venus.
Earth in a cloud of debris
A roughly sixty-meter space boulder would release energy equivalent to 6.5 to 8 megatons of TNT upon impact at 13 km/s (46,800 km/h). The event would thus become the strongest recorded impact in human history, leaving a new crater one kilometer in diameter on the surface. Scientists expect that the subsequent infrared afterglow of the red-hot region will be visible for hours and will be accompanied by a strong moonquake.
The impact corridor of asteroid 2024 YR4 on a map of the Moon
The consequences of the collision would be felt on Earth as well. Up to one hundred thousand tons of lunar rock would be thrown into the surrounding space. A small but significant portion of this ejected dust and rock would then overcome the moon’s weak gravity and it reached Earth within days.
As a result, under favorable conditions, we could observe a completely unique meteor shower formed by burning fragments of regolith for several nights. According to experts, meteors should be slower and less bright than normal showers. Although most of the debris will disappear harmlessly in the atmosphere, it cannot be completely ruled out that isolated larger fragments may fall to the ground.
We will know more in December 2028
While this is an exciting opportunity for astronomers, satellite constellation operators have legitimate concerns about the event. A cloud of fine debris could damage satellites in low orbitwhose number will dramatically increase to tens of thousands by 2032 (estimated at 30,000 or more).
The decisive answers will come in December 2028, when the asteroid will pass by the Earth again. Then astronomers will make more precise measurements that will definitively determine whether we should prepare for this historic show or just a close flyby.
date:2026-02-10 10:50:00
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