August tied with July 2023 as the joint-hottest month ever recorded globally, pushing average global temperatures 1.65°C above pre-industrial levels, according to data released by the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service. The milestone, driven by a combination of long-term climate change and a strengthening El Niño weather pattern, briefly pushes the planet past the critical 1.5°C threshold established under the Paris Agreement.
Copernicus Data Confirms Record-Breaking Global Heat
According to scientists at the EU’s Copernicus Climate Change Service, last month matched the unprecedented heat seen in July 2023. Global temperatures for the month reached 1.65°C above the estimated 1850-1900 pre-industrial average, marking a return to temperatures above the key 1.5°C threshold.
Dr Samantha Burgess, strategic lead for climate at Copernicus, described the month as “a remarkable month in the global climate record.” She noted that the impacts are “increasingly being felt by communities, economies and ecosystems across the world,” pointing to a combination of record air temperatures and record ocean heat driving extremes across both the atmosphere and oceans.
Oceans and Regional Impacts Drive Extremes
Sea surface temperatures away from the polar regions reached 21.07°C in August, marking the highest level on record for the month and tying with March 2024 as the joint highest across all months, according to Copernicus data. This marine heat coincides with western Europe experiencing its warmest summer on record, surpassing previous highs set during the severe heatwaves of 2003.
The extreme conditions triggered widespread severe drought across the UK, France, Hungary, Romania, and Serbia. Major river systems—including the Rhine, Danube, and Dnieper—experienced exceptionally low water flows. In the UK, the Met Office reported its hottest summer since records began in 1884, a milestone that the Met Office found had been made around 130 times more likely by human-caused climate change.
The Role of Fossil Fuels and El Niño
UN climate chief Simon Stiell attributed the mounting temperature records directly to human activity. “The evidence is irrefutable: this is the spiralling price of humanity’s fossil fuel addiction, and the global climate crisis it is fuelling,” Stiell stated.
Compounding the baseline warming from greenhouse gas emissions is the development of a strong El Niño. El Niño is a natural climate pattern where a band of the eastern Pacific Ocean turns unusually warm, releasing stored heat into the atmosphere and temporarily driving up global temperatures. Researchers note that the current El Niño is still strengthening and could become one of the most powerful on record, with its peak global temperature impacts expected to unfold over the coming year.
Prof Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London, emphasized that the underlying driver remains anthropogenic emissions. “While El Niño is starting to ramp up the heat, the underlying driver remains our relentless burning of fossil fuels,” Otto said, adding that climate change makes every El Niño event hotter.
What the 1.5°C Breach Means for the Paris Agreement
Under the 2015 Paris Agreement, nations committed to limiting long-term global warming to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels while pursuing efforts to cap the increase at 1.5°C. Climate scientists stress that a single month—or even a series of months—exceeding 1.5°C does not mean the long-term Paris target has been permanently breached.
However, researchers warn that these recurring exceedances signal a clear trajectory toward crossing that critical boundary permanently unless global greenhouse gas emissions are brought down to net zero. Until emissions cease, scientists project that record-shattering monthly temperatures will continue to recur with increasing frequency and severity.
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