Egypt’s Strategic fears regarding Ethiopia and the Red Sea

Egypt isn’t directly involved in the dispute between Ethiopia and Eritrea over the Red Sea port of Assab. Though, Cairo’s strategic fears – notably concerning Ethiopian access to the sea and its impact on regional power dynamics – could motivate it to exploit, or at least increase, tensions. Ethiopia, landlocked as Eritrean independence in 1993, consistently seeks secure access to the sea. The port of Assab historically served as Ethiopia’s key gateway to the Red sea.

The Assab Dispute

The port of Assab, located in southern Eritrea on the Bab el-Mandeb strait, was Ethiopia’s primary sea outlet both before and after Eritrean independence, until the 1998-2000 border war. Following the war, Eritrea blocked Ethiopia’s access to Assab, forcing Addis Ababa to rely on the port of Djibouti for over 95% of its trade – a costly and strategically vulnerable situation.

Recently, Ethiopia has increased its efforts to regain sea access. Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government has pursued port leasing in Somaliland (a 2024 MoU for Berbera) and reportedly explored sea access agreements with other nations. However, Eritrean President Isaias views Ethiopian intentions with suspicion, as any Ethiopian naval presence near Assab could threaten Eritrean sovereignty and its influence in the Red Sea.

Egypt closely monitors these developments. While publicly supporting Eritrean sovereignty, Cairo has strategic interests in preventing Ethiopia from gaining notable influence in the region.