Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney and Global Leaders Face the Demise of the Rules-Based Order
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney acknowledged the demise of the rules-based international order at the January 2026 World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, urging intermediate powers to work together to build institutions and interdependencies with like-minded countries. While Carney’s remarks made headlines in Western policy circles, leaders across the Global South had already articulated similar positions amid intensifying US-China rivalry. Former Senegalese president Macky Sall stated at the September 2022 United Nations General Assembly that Africa did not want to be the breeding ground for a new Cold War. Instead, Sall argued that the continent sought to function as a stable pole of opportunity open to all partners on a mutually beneficial basis. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto echoed this sentiment in May 2024, declaring that maintaining friendships with the United States, Japan, South Korea, and Europe did not preclude friendships with China, India, and Russia. Analysts often compare these diplomatic stances to the non-alignment principles outlined by former Indonesian president Sukarno at the Bandung Conference in 1955. Sukarno urged newly independent nations to keep nuclear-armed superpowers at arm’s length to preserve national autonomy.
Economic Globalisation Forces Polyalignment Across Nations
Contemporary leaders do not actually want to keep major global markets at arm’s length. Decades of economic globalisation have left most countries with deep structural ties to diverse external partners. Severing economic links with either the United States or China would inflict intolerable and politically inconceivable harm on domestic economies and societies.
Scholars describe this refusal to choose sides as hedging, viewing it as a deliberate state strategy to maximize gains and minimize vulnerabilities. But this perspective exaggerates the capacity of national elites for strategic control over private commercial networks.
A special issue of Third World Quarterly published in August 2026 conceptualizes this reality as polyalignment. Rather than a purely diplomatic posture, polyalignment describes how diverse state and societal actors maintain engagements with multiple external partners because domestic economies depend heavily on expansive global networks of production, trade, finance, and infrastructure. Private firms forged these flows largely without centralized state coordination, leaving governments unable to mandate sudden cutoffs from buyers or sellers in Washington or Beijing.
Vietnam and Indonesia Reveal the Pressures of Polyalignment
Vietnam illustrates the precarious nature of connector countries navigating superpower competition. While trying to retain strategic autonomy and foster domestic development through ties with both the United States and China, Vietnam remains vulnerable. Its manufacturing sector relies heavily on Chinese supplier networks, while its primary export markets are located in the West. Consequently, choosing sides or disengaging entirely would devastate its economy.
In other nations, powerful societal interests undermine official foreign policy goals. Indonesia’s government frequently insists on building equal partnerships with every state. Yet domestic politico-business elites benefit directly from easy partnerships with Chinese firms and show little interest in environmental protections. As a result, Indonesia’s crucial nickel-to-electric-vehicle supply chain is being pulled into China’s orbit, running contrary to the hedging strategies promoted by planners in Jakarta.
Frequently Asked Questions About Polyalignment
How does polyalignment differ from Cold War non-alignment?
Cold War non-alignment sought to keep superpowers at arm’s length to preserve diplomatic autonomy. Polyalignment emerges from four decades of economic globalisation, where domestic economies are already deeply embedded in the supply chains and financial networks of competing global superpowers.
Why can countries like Vietnam not simply choose between the US and China?
Vietnam’s manufacturing sector depends heavily on Chinese supplier networks, while its primary export markets are in Western nations like the United States. Severing ties with either partner would cause immediate and severe economic damage.
What role do private firms play in polyalignment?
Private firms largely forged the international production, trade, and financial flows that underpin the global economy without direct state coordination. This leaves most national governments without the power to force companies to cut ties with specific global buyers or sellers.
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