President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva faces a sharp disconnect between improving macroeconomic data and widespread voter frustration over the cost of living as Brazil approaches next month’s presidential election. While the incumbent administration points to record-low unemployment, falling inequality, and easing inflation, nearly half of Brazilians report that the economy worsened over the past year, fueling a competitive race for the presidency against Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
Voter Frustration Collides With Macroeconomic Gains
In a butcher’s shop near São Paulo’s historic center, 39-year-old worker Kleyton Zacarioto says customer traffic has slowed for years due to a prolonged period of rising food prices. Zacarioto stated that someone earning a minimum wage has no way to get ahead, turning him against the leftist president’s bid for a fourth term. According to data from a Quaest poll published in September, nearly half of Brazilians say the economy has gotten worse over the past year, while just 19% say it improved.
Lula, 80, is asking voters for patience. In a recent campaign spot reported by Reuters, the president acknowledged that times remain difficult but guaranteed that inflation will stay under control, noting that he understands what it is like not to make ends meet. The campaign has also launched a website called “Market of Lies” and filed a complaint with the Superior Electoral Court accusing the senator’s campaign of spreading falsehoods about supermarket prices.
The Political Challenge From the Bolsonaro Camp
Polls show a neck-and-neck race between Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of former right-wing President Jair Bolsonaro, who was barred from the race following a conviction for an attempted coup. Senator Bolsonaro has made the diminished purchasing power of family paychecks a centerpiece of his campaign, frequently comparing current supermarket prices to those recorded during his father’s administration.
Political analyst and author Thomas Traumann noted that everyday citizens disagree with official reports that paint the government’s economic stewardship in a positive light. Traumann compared the dynamic to U.S. President Joe Biden’s 2024 struggles to bridge a gap between positive macroeconomic data and negative consumer sentiment—a phenomenon economics commentator Kyla Scanlon termed the “vibecession.”
Household Debt and Structural Pressures
Experts point to persistent structural burdens that prevent families from feeling the impact of easing inflation. While food inflation slowed sharply and prices even fell between June and August, cumulative price hikes leave expenses well above pre-pandemic levels. Felipe Nunes, founder and CEO of pollster Quaest, explained that voters ultimately judge the economy by their practical ability to pay bills, consume services, and achieve personal goals.
At the same time, household debt service—excluding mortgages—reached a record 26.6% of income in June, according to central bank figures. Analysts attribute this rising debt to fast-growing fintech firms offering easy credit at high interest rates, alongside a boom in online betting that has absorbed billions of reais in household income. These pressures have been compounded by Brazil’s 13.75% benchmark interest rate, which ranks among the highest real rates globally, though the central bank has begun a gradual easing cycle.
Economist Marcelo Neri of Fundação Getulio Vargas summarized the dual reality, noting that labor-market data, poverty indicators, and middle-class expansion show significant progress, but cumulative food inflation, high interest rates, and online gambling combine to create an economic stalemate for many households.
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